Jerry: Better than 50/50 odds to win the whole thing!

[smooth_dancer]

Every week prior to this week, the last two couples standing were announced as the couples with the lowest overall scores. This week, the announcement was not explicitly made, so the following analysis may not be appropriate. In any case, here's my interpretation of the results:

Judges' placements and points received for dancing:
1. Stacey (4 points)
1. Drew (4 points)
3. Lisa (2 points)
4. Jerry (1 point)

Overall placements based on results show:
1 or 2. Drew
1 or 2. Jerry
3. Stacey
4. Lisa

"Deduced" viewer voting placements:
1. Jerry (4 points)
2. Drew (3 points)
3. Lisa (2 points)
4. Stacey (1 point)

This would have resulted in the following overall scores, consistent with the final results:
1. Drew (7 points)
2. Jerry (5 points) -- tie breaker goes to popularity vote!
3. Stacey (5 points)
4. Lisa (3 points)

As far as I can tell, this is the only voting placement order that could have resulted in Jerry placing ahead of Stacey in the overall scores and Stacey placing ahead of Lisa.

I think the viewer votes are the toughest to change, since they are based largely on popularity and not on the performance of the dancers each week. So, the voting placements next week will mostly likely be:

1. Jerry (3 points)
2. Drew (2 points)
3. Stacey (1 point)

Now, we know that Jerry will place 3rd in the judges score (unless a miracle happens!), so he would then finish with 4 points. Then, the overall winner will depend on whether Drew or Stacey gets the top score. If Stacey gets the top score, all three contestants would finish with 4 votes, and Jerry would win the tie breaker and be crowned champion! If Drew gets the top score, or if Drew and Stacey tie, Drew would win. Now, Stacey has received the top score more times than Drew, so she is favored to do it again. So, I would put the odds of Jerry winning the whole thing as somewhat better than 50/50! Ironically, Stacey's chances might be slim to none. :(.

[latingal]

Can I say WOW?

Thanks for the analysis smooth_dancer, I was afraid he was a goner tonight. I have to admit, I love to root for the guy that starts with the least chance but still gives it his all (and who said this was strictly a dance contest, yes? Once you give the viewers a chance to vote, you open it up to - who has the best story, fan base etc. Nobody gave the audience rules or certified them for voting!)

[smooth_dancer]

Have you also noticed how after every time Jerry is announced, the crowd breaks into a frenzy and starts chanting, "Jerry, Jerry, Jerry!"? Seems like everybody is pulling for him. If Jerry wins the contest, they may need to change the rules next time --> tie-breaker goes to the judge's scores. I don't know if that would be a popular decision though. Well, at least things won't be as bad as if Master P had won the contest based on popularity votes!

[DancePoet]

Hmmm ... interesting analysis, yet if I recall correctly the shows host, Tom Bergeron, announced that the results given last night were in random order.

Yet this doesn't mean Jerry doesn't have a shot.

[Ralph]

I sure hope he doesn't have a chance. I'm sorry to say this, but it would be scandelous if he'd won. Len was right that he is by far the worst dancer. Lisa should've stayed, not Jerry.

[newyork617]

They announced that the stars that were safe were not be selected in any particular order. Different from the previous shows where the lowest two were left until the end.

My take is that the the voting broke down as follows:

Drew and Stacey were number one & two in the judges and viewers rankings, getting 3 & 4 points in both ranking categories.

That leaves:

Lisa 2 points from judges. Jerry 1 point from the judges.
Lisa 1 point from viewers Jerry 2 points from the viewers.

That left them tied, in a tie situation the viewers ranking breaks the tie, so Jerry won the tie breaker.

I like Jerry a great deal, but honestly he is not close to Drew or Stacey in the dances to date.

[moother]

It would be very sad if Jerry were to win simply because he is a popular football personality. If he were the best dancer I wouldn't have a problem with it but to see him win just because people are backing the "underdog" kind of ruins the real competitive edge of the show for me.
I personally will be calling all my friends and family on Thursday and begging them to vote for ANYONE else.

[mamboqueen]

I agree. I don't think it will happen. And I can't imagine he would feel like he deserved it. I wouldn't be unhappy if either Drew or Stacy won, although Stacy is a technically better dancer.

[latingal]

Dancing wise, I agree with all of you that Jerry is not the best dancer in the group and in my heart I don't think he should win the contest with two other dancers that are clearly better. However, like I said earlier, nobody gave the audience rules on voting (nobody told them they had to vote for the best dancer, just who they wanted to see back). That opens up a reality that we might not agree with, but they are the "rules" of the game...

But in some ways (and I'm sure this is probably covered in another thread here) this hasn't been fair from the beginning. Stacey clearly has had many years of ballet, jazz and tap - it may not be the same technique as ballroom, but because of her dance background she will already have the elements of line, posture and movement in her body - a HUGE advantage.

Ah well, I'm just happy that the show is entertaining and getting others interested in ballroom!

[smooth_dancer]

[quote=newyork617]They announced that the stars that were safe were not be selected in any particular order. Different from the previous shows where the lowest two were left until the end.
quote]

Actually, in all of the previous shows, they also stated that the stars announced as safe are not presented in any particular order. However, when they got to the last two, they added that these two couples received the lowest overall score. So, the announcements didn't give complete disclosure of the overall rankings, but just on the bottom two. Of course, once you get down to four couples, disclosing the bottom two couples reveals a larger percentage of the information. Last night, all of the announcements were the same as prior weeks (including the statement that the safe couples are not presented in any particular order), but they left out the statement that the last two couples received the lowest overall scores. I'm pretty sure in the last season, when they got down to three or four couples, they adhered to the same convention for announcements. Well, this season has many rule changes. Maybe, we should check the official site for info.

[smooth_dancer]

Looks like other people are discussing the same issues on the official forums: http://forums.go.com/abc/primetime/dancingwiththestars/thread?threadID=869431&forumStart=0

[DanceMentor]

I can definitely imagine Jerry NOT leaving next week as a result of viewer votes. I can also see Stacy leaving next week because she doesn't have enough viewer notes.

[Medira]

I can definitely imagine Jerry NOT leaving next week as a result of viewer votes. I can also see Stacy leaving next week because she doesn't have enough viewer notes.
Next week is the finals DM...so it will only be choosing the winner. No more eliminations.

[victordancer]

what puzzles me: is who is jerry's fan base. are the men who watch pro football really watching DWTS. Are they all waiting until 9:30pm and running to call on their cell phones. it is obvious that he has the most amount of fans otherwise he would be gone, but its hard for me to believe that his fan base would be doing all that voting.

[Ralph]

what puzzles me: is who is jerry's fan base. are the men who watch pro football really watching DWTS. Are they all waiting until 9:30pm and running to call on their cell phones. it is obvious that he has the most amount of fans otherwise he would be gone, but its hard for me to believe that his fan base would be doing all that voting.

I can imagine that old team players are all voting for him. That would be quite a lot of votes.

[pygmalion]

As much as I think he's a nice guy, I would hate to see Jerry win just because of his popularity. If he did, what would be the point of having a "dance" show? Just have a straight-up popular vote. :?

[DancePoet]

Exactly!

Jerry has given it one heck of a run, but he isn't really the best dancer. And although I suspect Stacey has the most dance background, dont' forget this: Drew is musically inclined. ;)

[new-ish]

I don't think there is a huge commercial payback for Jerry Rice to do the show, but has still made a huge effort to do well and do justice to ballroom dancing.

Sounds like a winner to me.

[marykomatsu]

Jerry is totally inspirational. His rebuke to Len when Len told Jerry he was the worst of the remaining dancers was so uplifting. I bet the phones went nuts when he did that.

He and Drew are neck and neck - both big winners.

[ChaChaMama]

I see your point about how we don't want this to be a straight up popularity contest, but on the other hand, Tom Bergeron does not tell viewers "If you think Couple X danced the best routine tonight, call...." He instead usually says something more along the lines of "If you want Couple X to return next week for the semi-finals, call...."

Now, some people might want Couple X to return because they are the best. Some people might want Couple X to return just because they think the celeb in Couple X is "hot." Some people may be voting against a celeb they really despise. ABC does not really care, as long as you are watching, voting, and showing up in those Nielsens!

And I don't really care too much either, because any way you slice it, high Nielsens are good for getting more dancing on TV!!! If Jerry Rice is pulling in a piece of the male demographic, then I'm all for keeping him on the show.

:) ChaChaMama, who thinks it is pretty freakin' awesome that within one week she was able to see Tony Dovolani and Valentin Chmerkovskiy on both ABC (DWTS) and PBS (America's Ballroom Challenge/OSB), and was also able to see the IDSF programs on PBS!

[pygmalion]

:) ChaChaMama, who thinks it is pretty freakin' awesome that within one week she was able to see Tony Dovolani and Valentin Chmerkovskiy on both ABC (DWTS) and PBS (America's Ballroom Challenge/OSB), and was also able to see the IDSF programs on PBS!

Amen sister! :D

[fascination]

okay (dont tell my pro) tony tony tony...swoon

[fascination]

can someone hook me up with that guy?

[chandra]

ummm, I kinda feel like there is a really long line unless your legs are up to your neck too...

;)

[ChaChaMama]

okay (dont tell my pro) tony tony tony...swoon

See, this is what I try to tell people when they act surprised that a committed feminist like I would be into latin and ballroom dancing, where the man is the "leader." I keep trying to explain that this world is one of the few level playing fields where men dress for women as much as women dress for men and both sexes get to enjoy the visual feast. ;)

It's not the ONLY thing I like about dancing, but it's definitely on the list....

ChaChaMama

[fascination]

oh yea...my pro came out in his latin outfit last week and I had to go outside and hose off...flush...yow......and when alain doucet was in, it positively broke my heart;) to have to hold his hips whilst moving through a tango routine:cool:

[fascination]

ummm, I kinda feel like there is a really long line unless your legs are up to your neck too...

;)nope but I have a much better backside;)

[chandra]

lol, nice.

[musicchica86]

And it was just SUCH a hardship to watch Alec demonstrate cucarachas, let me tell you...just killed me to have to feel the muscles in his shoulderblades too. So difficult.

[pygmalion]

You poor thing.

[musicchica86]

I know. I guess I'll just have to have a pity party for myself. Want to join me?

[Medira]

Well, I now know what mental images will be getting me through my Monday morning... *purr*

[pygmalion]

Ooh. Have you tried a google image search? You don't have to rely on mental images. :idea: :wink:

[Medira]

Ooh. Have you tried a google image search? You don't have to rely on mental images. :idea: :wink:
Fabulous idea! *bounces off to :google:*