New dollar lows and the dress prices..

[Katarzyna]

So I have a dilemma, looks like now is a good time to sell your gowns in Europe with dollar being so low... an normal price here is a good deal there at the moment... but now I just have a feeling that the gown prices will go drastically up because of the weak currency.. 2 years ago I was able to find REALLY nice dresses for about 1000 euro (which was close to 1300)... now... typically its about 1300 euro which is about 2K... of course occasionally there are better prices but it seems like the prices in Europe have increased and our currency has decreased.. I wonder if its good idea to sell gowns now at all (if you have many) since most likely soon they will not be replaceable... and wonder if the prices of the designers here will be adjusted accordingly... (alhough some low chrisanne prices are really puzzling me)

[GJB]

Wow! Who'd ever have thought this would happen. Next the top coaches will stay in Europe instead of visiting the U.S. to make the big bucks off the "rich americans".

[Katarzyna]

well the coaching lessons already increased in price quite a bit over last 2 years probably due to the drop of the value of the dollar... ( correct me if I am wrong, the but I think pound weakened as welll so the drop is biggest between dolar and euro and not as big between dollar and pound)...

[Katarzyna]

but for coachings, well there are always people who will be willing to pay the prices, so dont think this is something to be worried about... and its still cheaper to take the lessons when they visit than pay for flight and hotel in UK

[Laura]

Wow! Who'd ever have thought this would happen. Next the top coaches will stay in Europe instead of visiting the U.S. to make the big bucks off the "rich americans".
The truly rich Americans can handle the dollar issues. The rest of us will just have to figure out another way to get decent dresses and coachings.

[samina]

sounds like you're sitting on quite a little nest egg, kat... with the low buck, it's an opportunity for lots of people in different ways.

[mummsie]

yes your dollar has dropped heaps. about 8 years ago we got 65 cents Aus to $1 US - has even gone below that - now its almost dollar for dollar. It makes it much more affordable for us to buy stuff now online. Our dollar is still bad to convert to Euros and Pounds Stirling but for us the US dollar is a bargain. Good for us - bad for you. Mummsie

[Katarzyna]

yes, onder if its good idea to just give it like 6 months and not sell anything... to see what will happen.. but I think this trend will continue... but not sure ... although with financial degree, I have such vague memory of finance and follow currency on bloomberg.com at best so cannot really say where its all going.. But thought If I should turn into rental only and no sale for a wile.. just to see what happens... well that's just an idea...

[Katarzyna]

oh there is another option, buy Laura a ticket to NY, and pay her handsomly for some sowing lessons..

[GJB]

The truly rich Americans can handle the dollar issues. The rest of us will just have to figure out another way to get decent dresses and coachings.

No doubt the rich won't be affected. As for the rest of us, we should just boycott. Prices are outrageous. Let them starve. Well, I know that isn't going to happen. I better hurry up and get better because my raises are paltry compared to the increasing cost of lessons.

[Katarzyna]

lol I just got my 4% ... its like... NOTHING

[GJB]

Boycott ! Boycott ! : )

[Larinda McRaven]

(alhough some low chrisanne prices are really puzzling me)

??

[DanceMentor]

I'm expecting this year to continue to see the dollar weaken, but most likely we will see it strengthen again in 2009. What is happening right now is people are investing in commodities like oil and gold, and getting rid of dollars.

You figure dresses sell at comps for $3500-4500 range, so buying from Europe at $2000-2750 should continue to be a bargain. Over in Eastern Europe the GDP per capita is still around $10000 US per year, so to make $1000 profit on a dress is going to continue to be worth 2-4 weeks worth of work.

Even recently, I have seen quotes for dresses that were sub-$2000 from companies in Western Europe, and even less in Eastern Europe. It will take quite a while for any dramatic changes to really set in to the point that it makes a tremendous difference. If that happens, we are going to need to learn how to sew here in the USA. And there are quite a few people that have come to the USA in the last few years that not only know how to dance, but also know how to sew.

[Kitty]

I'm expecting this year to continue to see the dollar weaken, but most likely we will see it strengthen again in 2009. What is happening right now is people are investing in commodities like oil and gold, and getting rid of dollars.

you could make a case for that: if the housing crisis will be helped by time and by the improved interest rates, if the economy does well, and if the Fed increases the interest rates due to inflation pressure..
or you could make a case that the $ will continue to fall due to the weakened economy, inflation, rising energy prices, housing and credit crisis, import/export imbalance and national debt, and finally, due to strengthening of other currencies (euro, yuan)

so it is all unpredictable, affected big time by small things, even by the bad weather in some oil country..
cannot predict anything currency-wise.

dress prices.. are definitely rising in Europe. Seems like they are falling in the US though.
Chrisanne dot us, for example, had a sale with some smooth and standard gowns available for under $2000, to answer Larindas question.

[elisedance]

Suggestion for dresses: find a local seamstress. What you may loose in european styling you gain in price and in satisfaction. My first dress was made in toronto and I am just comissioning my second one with the same woman. I get to visit her and discuss style and material, show her things on the internet that I think are interesting and have as many fittings as I want. In addition, when the dress needs an adjustment (for example, lost weight :)) she does it for next to nothing and perfectly. Oh, and its also cheaper and there are no shipping charges/hassles.

I realize there are hazzards with this approach - but not if you ask around and get personal recommendations. By the way, anyone in the area (Toronto) that wants the contact by all means PM.

[Twilight_Elena]

The designer who made my dress is in Brooklyn, NY, and I have been thinking of making a new dress because of the low dollar prices (I deal with euros and nowadays even British pounds).

[Joe]

The dollar was already weakened before the housing bubble burst, it's just exacerbated the situation. The dollar is weak due to the amount of debt we Americans have built up, not just personal and corporate, but mostly government.

[Katarzyna]

The designer who made my dress is in Brooklyn, NY, and I have been thinking of making a new dress because of the low dollar prices (I deal with euros and nowadays even British pounds).
local seamstress is always an option, but I am never too excited with things I see made locally...

[Katarzyna]

this is deppressing, just checked the dollar price, it just keeps falling and falling.. And I have a custom made dress I have to pay for in Euros... which in last few weeks has gotten a lot more expensive

[tanya_the_dancer]

I've already decided to hold on to my dresses for a few years.

[Katarzyna]

might be a good idea... I just have a secred hope the currency will strenghten again...

[Larinda McRaven]

Chrisanne dot us, for example, had a sale with some smooth and standard gowns available for under $2000, to answer Larindas question.

Not sure I would call that a sign of a drooping economy. Just a "Year End Sale". She had done it before, even when there was not talk of a recession.

[Katarzyna]

Not sure I would call that a sign of a drooping economy. Just a "Year End Sale". She had done it before, even when there was not talk of a recession.
I ahve seen Chrisanne sales before but the sale prices this year seem a Lot lower, and inventory seems to change a lot less frequently..

[biggestbox]

I've already decided to hold on to my dresses for a few years.

sell them, you will want new ones and new styles in a couple of year anyways.

[Me]

It has been two years since I've traveled to Europe strictly because of the currency exchange rates. Europe will always be there, so in the meantime I'm traveling elsewhere.

The gown prices coupled with crippling exchange rates have gone beyond high and ventured into the realm of the absurd.

I know one dancer who travels to China to dress shop. She could fill five wardrobes with European standard gowns before having to visit her ATM, but she refuses to buy because she says it is a rip-off. I've got to tell you, some of the gowns she has brought back are NICE. Asia is seriously closing what used to be a huge quality and design gap.

[wyllo]

Where do all the US pros buy their dresses? I find it hard to believe that the younger pros can afford designer prices, yet they always seem to have expensive looking dresses in current styles.

[elisedance]

Good question, oh DF oracle...

[Kitty]

Not sure I would call that a sign of a drooping economy. Just a "Year End Sale". She had done it before, even when there was not talk of a recession.

I didn't say that it was a sign of drooping economy. I am not even sure if dress prices are correlated wiht the economy at all.
I just said that the gown prices in the US are falling, and the very very cheap (for Chrisanne) sale at Chrisanne dot us is a sign. I have not seen before so many Chrisanne gowns for sale at the same time @ $1500 or less.

[Ithink]

They *may* be renting. Or they *may* be sponsored by a less known designer. A lot of them are also Russian/Eastern European and may have designers in those countries make dresses for them. I think the latter is the likeliest scenario...

[wyllo]

A lot of them are also Russian/Eastern European and may have designers in those countries make dresses for them. I think the latter is the likeliest scenario...

hmm, maybe there is an opportunity there? Assuming we still have a favorable exchange rate with Russia?

[Larinda McRaven]

Most pros are not renting. Most of them are buying from lesser known designers (sinsta), and buying couture second hand. Or they are in their basements, sewing for themseves (or having their moms do it).

As for the falling prices... I imagine that there is some small backlash among the design companies, themseves against the prices. Most, if not all of them, were Horrified when they saw the first 5K price tag showup at USDC several years back. And although they all admit that the prices wil go up over time, no one really wanted to see that price point just yet. Almost all of them have tried to hold back from approaching it.

[etp777]

I think that about covers them. Sponsored, or one of the options Larinda gave.

[Ithink]

Figures I am wrong. I've never even heard fo Sinsta. Where are they from?

[Larinda McRaven]

No I think you may be on to something about having dresses made in their homeland... Or at at least within their own Eastern European community. In the kids studio downtairs from me, there are LOTS of Moms making dresses.

Svetlana and Alex Sinista. He makes great mens wear and she makes great dresses, out of the LA area. There are a few threads here at DF that have made mention of them over the years, but for whatever they don't quite get the recogition that I think they deserve.

[tanya_the_dancer]

sell them, you will want new ones and new styles in a couple of year anyways.

Why? I just got them last year, and I need to use them for at least 2-3 more years, I think, to justify the expense. I don't expect to recover 100% of the cost when I eventually do sell them.

[DancerForLife]

Figures I am wrong. I've never even heard fo Sinsta. Where are they from?

Aleksandr and Svetlana SINITSA are a popular taylor / seamstress husband and wife team who make outfits for many of the couples on the West Coast and beyond.

I've heard from several sources, including DH, that Aleksandr's tail suits and smooth jackets are very good - the quality is excellent, the fabrics are sturdy, and the whole ensemble is well made, fitted, and feels good to dance in.

As for Svetlana - she made several of my gowns, and all were of wonderful quality and fit. And for the sake of full disclosure... all of the gowns (made to order for me) were between 1,800 and 2,200; and these are fully stoned costumes with all sorts of accessories (hair, bracelets, floats etc etc). If interested, do a search on dancesportinfo dot net for Lesya Sinitsa - Svetlana's daughter - all the costumes are made by Svetlana. Lela Sinitsa (a.k.a. Weinert)'s gowns are also made by Svetlana. I'm going to have a gown made by her this summer, right now she is fully booked at least till Emerald.

[Ithink]

Oh, well I know Sinitsa, but not Sinsta. I thought it was a dressmaker I never heard of, which would be surprising...

[Josh]

The decline in the value of the US$ is due to many things, including declining interest rates offered by the central bank. Trying to predict how the dollar will stand any period of time from now is the work of speculation, and most speculators don't make money over time--so, the moral is, sell or buy based on what you have to do, and based on your budget. It's like waiting for interest rates to rise or fall so you can borrow or invest appropriately--most of the time your guess will be no better than a coin toss, so do what you need to do, and get on with life! :-)

[elisedance]

Yes - but what we do collectively DOES impact how our currencies perform. So if the US dollar is not to be devalued to the yen the country has to have something the rest of the world wants to buy. A weak dollar stimulates export. For DF, that means if you run a competition it will be much cheaper for foreigners to visit and attend (meaning that we may get more dance pros visiting and not less). Also, it will make it easier to make dance supplies for export - but the dollar would probably have to decline a lot more to competin with countries that still have way weaker currencies than in the US.

[Joe]

Oh, well I know Sinitsa, but not Sinsta. I thought it was a dressmaker I never heard of, which would be surprising...
I didn't know, until I went for my fittings. :) Svetlana came and hung out with me while Aleks was fitting another dude.

[Josh]

Yes - but what we do collectively DOES impact how our currencies perform. So if the US dollar is not to be devalued to the yen the country has to have something the rest of the world wants to buy

It's not required that we have something the rest of the world wants to buy. If a country's central bank offers a high interest rate compared to another currency (I.e., NZD/JPY), that alone will create a demand and hence higher value for a currency.

[DanceMentor]

I was reading today that commodity prices (which are high now) are probably in a bubble situation. If we are heading into a recession, demand for commodities like oil will likely decrease. And since many investors have been turning to commodities as a result of a weak dollar, there may be reason to believe that commodities will weaken, and the dollar may see some strengthening even this year. A recession may actually bring about a stronger dollar. It certainly did the last time.

[samina]

If we are heading into a recession, .

everything i read of late is that it's here.

[elisedance]

It's not required that we have something the rest of the world wants to buy. If a country's central bank offers a high interest rate compared to another currency (I.e., NZD/JPY), that alone will create a demand and hence higher value for a currency.

yes but only on the short term - any advantages of a high interest rate that is not backed by performance is liable to be sucked up by inflation. Ultimately, its the country's economic performance that boosts its currency...

[elisedance]

OK here is my personal take (I am not an expert in this at all).

We've had entire generation that has not seen a recession. They have no idea why labor unions were inveted and why people sacrificed income for job security. The plus side for business is that it will be really easy to shed extra empoyees and cut the bottom line. The trouble is that all these empolyees - working as consultants, 'temp' jobs and by piecing together multiple positions - will have nowhere to go. This generation has grown up in a healthy economy where if you don't like one job or opportunities arrise for a more interesting one or higher paid one, you dump it and another comes along. In a real recession that does not work, there are no jobs to move into and with temps/consultants etc. businesses have no responsibility to support them. Are we looking at a bubble of massive unemployment?

Am I being too worried?

[etp777]

My generation certainly needs toughening up, I think even if it went bad, it would probably be a good thing in the long run. Those who came through the great depression sure as hell learned good lessons and improved the nation from what they elarned.

[Josh]

everything i read of late is that it's here.

It seems we may be headed that way, but it's not here yet samina. A recession is two quarters of negative economic growth, and the first quarter of negative growth was Q4 of last year. As the current quarter ends in a month, no one can say that a textbook 'recession' has occurred yet, and it can't be clearly defined until around the end of April if indeed it did occur. We can use other words but it seems some don't mind redefining or questioning the validity of a word which has for some time had a clear definition. However, even in 'non-textbook recessions,' the economy may slow down quite a bit on alternating quarters, and have an overall slowdown. So it doesn't have to be a defined 'recession' in order to affect many people negatively.

I wrote a nice long paragraph on likely reasons why you've read what you've read, but it's pretty political in nature so I'll just refrain. :-)

[Josh]

Am I being too worried?

Yes, what does worrying accomplish? Two questions: (1) Do you have 6 months of living expenses saved up in case of emergency? (2) Are you good at what you do for work and sought out for it?

If the answer is yes to both, then you never have much of anything to worry about in your own 'private economy' (the oft-neglected economy that is 98% of the reason people get into financial trouble, NOT the government's economy). If the answer is no to either one, then fix it immediately!

[samina]

It seems we may be headed that way, but it's not here yet samina. A recession is two quarters of negative economic growth,

I've read that isn't the only way to determine it, but I understand it is the textbook approach. Anyway, I'm dispassionate about either view...there are many layers that would apply to this discussion, both political & metaphysical...and you're right, best to keep off the forum. :)

[Laura]

We've had entire generation that has not seen a recession.
Am I that old? Because in the US we were having one in the 70's when I was a kid.

[samina]

Am I that old? Because in the US we were having one in the 70's when I was a kid.

I remember my scientist dad lost his job and had to wait tables for a time at a low-alcohol live music joint on the banks of the mississippi...loved going there whwen he worked. Free popcorn & my first taste of beer-cheese soup.

No money, good memories.

[elisedance]

Am I that old? Because in the US we were having one in the 70's when I was a kid.

Hate to tell you this Laura, but there's a whole generation after that... My son is 30 and is acting as if he is an adult. Its very hard to adjust to... By the way, he is the one I am thinking of with all of the above...

[elisedance]

Yes, what does worrying accomplish? Two questions: (1) Do you have 6 months of living expenses saved up in case of emergency? (2) Are you good at what you do for work and sought out for it?

If the answer is yes to both, then you never have much of anything to worry about in your own 'private economy' (the oft-neglected economy that is 98% of the reason people get into financial trouble, NOT the government's economy). If the answer is no to either one, then fix it immediately!

Josh, I take it you are less than 35 yrs old? I think I can rest my case.

6 months is diddly squat. Recessions can run into depressions. What happens if a recession goes on for 3-5 years? It does not matter how good you are at your job if there are no jobs. In any case, how much do you think a 'free market' business will pay you anyway if there are 500 people vying for the same position? Indeed, if you are in a position that still has, them a recession might be a good reason to join a Union. I know this sounds like ancient history but the reasons these enties were created have not gone away - when you get down to it, in extreme labor conditions (and I emphasize extreme here - there is no evidence that we are going that far down) who is going to fight for you? Some jobs are recession resistant - mostly professions and govenment paid jobs - the government does not, by definition, go bankrupt. In the depression schoolteachers and such that were buying up real estate!

[Joe]

Um, did we not just have a recession after the (first) tech bubble burst in 2000 or so, I think?

[Josh]

Um, did we not just have a recession after the (first) tech bubble burst in 2000 or so, I think?

Technically no, but it was essentially the same situation. Something like Q1 was negative growth, Q2 was up, Q3 was down, Q4 was up, and so on. That would have been between 00 and 01, I think.

[samina]

i don't it was the same situation... there are a lot of other things going to h*ll in a handbasket right now... price of oil, the housing market... it's a different ballgame.

[Josh]

i don't it was the same situation... there are a lot of other things going to h*ll in a handbasket right now... price of oil, the housing market... it's a different ballgame.

I didn't mean the same situation as right now--I meant that the situation at that time was the same circumstances as a typical well-defined recession.

[samina]

Yes, that's true. Makes me think comparatively we have some interesting times ahead. Well...things are always interesting to me. But there's that famous chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times.". That's us for sure!

[Chiron]

At least things are still strong in the oil industry. It's not like BP would lay off 5,000 people after turning a profit of $4.4 billion and oil prices above $100 a barrel. Oh wait they are...

[elisedance]

At least things are still strong in the oil industry. It's not like BP would lay off 5,000 people after turning a profit of $4.4 billion and oil prices above $100 a barrel. Oh wait they are...

:D (ironically not meanly intended)

[amiko]

At least things are still strong in the oil industry. It's not like BP would lay off 5,000 people after turning a profit of $4.4 billion and oil prices above $100 a barrel. Oh wait they are...

Ooh, let's not get into the oil industry. Interesting topic about buy/sell dresses from europ to US turns into discussion about oil.

This is where 0.05 of the population...these bagilliondillionzillionaires make their money...what a scam. I don't want to go into it cuz y'all already know.

I'm a hater cuz i'm in the bottom 0.05 percent!! Grrrrrrr.
Ok I've calm down. :oops:

By the way, even though many things are going up in price (housing, oil, dance lessons), employment overall is slightly rising in the U.S. as of 4th Qtr 2007 per Jack Keyser, Chief Economist of LA County Economic Development. Depends on the specific industry. I know that that Leisure and Hospitality industry is the strongest right now.

I have a whole report that I took notes from that I can post about all the different industries. Gee, this site is more useful than just dance...didn't know y'all were economists too. :cool:

[elisedance]

I know that that Leisure and Hospitality industry is the strongest right now.


I guess that will only get better since it should be really cheap for europeans and others to visit the US this year...