Ballroom Dance > Dancing on TV > DWTS 3 - Week 4 - SPOILERS

Discussion in 'Dancing on TV' started by DancePoet, Oct 3, 2006.

  1. Another Elizabeth

    Another Elizabeth Active Member

    Under the old rules, you added up the judges' ordinal ranking with the audience's ordinal ranking, and the lowest total won. In the case of a tie, the audience vote was the tiebreaker. So, for example, in the last season's final, we had something like

    Drew: judges 1st, audience 2nd = total 3
    Jerry: judges 3rd, audience 1st = total 4
    Stacy: judges 2nd, audience 3rd = total 5
    (we don't know for sure what the relative popularity of Drew and Jerry was, so I'm hypothesizing here)

    Under this scenario, it's easy to figure out the order of the final placements as Drew, Jerry, Stacy.

    However, if the audience vote had come out differently, we get a different scenario:
    Drew: judges 1st, audience 3rd = total 4
    Jerry: judges 3rd, audience 1st = total 4
    Stacy: judges 2nd, audience 2nd = total 4

    In this case, where the audience vote is the exact reverse of the judge vote, you move on to the next level of tiebreaker, which is the audience vote. In that case, the final result is Jerry, Stacy, Drew. So even though Drew was first with the judges, he could still be last in the group, if the audience votes aligned exactly right (which many of us worried about at the time). However, it was impossible for the audience's favorite to come in last (and be eliminated) under the old system.

    Under the new system, the magnitude of the vote matters, not just the order. So Say-ra has to get a lot more audience vote to make up for the drubbing she got from the judges (which she is doing, much to my chagrin).
  2. My Ox Is Broken

    My Ox Is Broken New Member

    Great explanation of the scoring procedure!
  3. cornutt

    cornutt Well-Known Member

    You're right; the audience vote placement was the tiebreaker. I stand corrected.
  4. SPratt74

    SPratt74 New Member

    Probably. But I live in the south, and Sara is barely played on the radio. I listen to the country station everyday too. So, it depends on where you live in the south is my guess. You might be right! ;)
  5. SPratt74

    SPratt74 New Member

    The Rumba is my hardest dance. It's not because of straight leg problems but the cuban motion and walk etc. No matter how hard I try, stuff like that seem to be the hardest for me. And I guess the slow music for me is also hard to dance to. I'm better with faster music. ;)
  6. ACtenDance

    ACtenDance Active Member

    They play her songs... song... all the time here now, especially on Tuesdays. The DJs are always telling people to call in for her too.
  7. SPratt74

    SPratt74 New Member

    Really? Interesting. I guess though I don't know maybe it's just the radio station I listen to lol. Although every city has their own radio stations etcc., and we have lots of them. It could be played elsewhere. I do like her music though. I think I own a CD actually now that I think about it. ;)
  8. mamboqueen

    mamboqueen Well-Known Member

    Well, perhaps DWTS is going to give her singing career a little boost...and so if she doesn't win, that's really not a bad consolation prize. Probably why most of them do it anyway. I hear Shanna Moakler is extending her 15 minutes of the expense of Paris Hilton! *ow*
  9. DancePoet

    DancePoet Well-Known Member

    Doesn't matter, country music is country music, and it's big if your a fan. I suspect a large group of her votes are coming form the country fans just because she is country music's rep this time in their minds. It likely doesn't matter if she not in the top echelon of country music.

    Perhaps she made good use of or start up/pre show practice weeks, but now that it is only one week in between each show and she seemed to eb spending so much time doing other things, too, that her improvement was slower then others.
  10. DancePoet

    DancePoet Well-Known Member

    Ayuh, and they better do it soon or else it could get scary towards the end. If we think her fan base is big now, wait till she finishes in the top 3, 4, or 5. This would spread word of mouth through the country music scene like wild fire. Viewership might even peak and there would be even more votes for her. :roll:
  11. ChaChaMama

    ChaChaMama Well-Known Member

    I missed have a group number involving all the pros this week.

    On the plus side, though, the behind the scenes segment was the funniest ever. For those who missed it, it was ballroom's exaggerated aesthetic. Funny lines included approximately the following:

    Jerry Springer:
    "If the spandex industry ever went on strike, dancing would grind to a halt."

    Jerry Springer, on all the pros--esp men--checking themselves out:
    "You could get hurt if you got in the way of a mirror."

    Monique on spray tans:
    "Everyone buys into it. I even bought into it. I got one and I'm a black girl!"

    MQ, someone (I think Willa) said that her favorite thing was watching Max get his body makeup and then walk around all day without his shirt on. (Some footage was shown.) I was expecting to hear an enthusiastic second of that statement!
  12. Twilight_Elena

    Twilight_Elena Well-Known Member

    And Max without a shirt sounds nice. *drool*

  13. johns

    johns New Member

    It really is a powerful fail-safe, especially as more of the couples fall by the wayside.

    With fewer couples in the competition, the range of percentages that the judges have at their disposal increases. Their scoring thus carries weight.

    Consider the following scenario: There's a competitor who has to go. The judges excercise their power to the fullest to combat huge popularity of the competitor. To do that, they give this competitor all 1's, and all the other couples 10's. Here's what the judges percentages are based on the number of remaining couples for those scoring 3 points and those scoring 30 points:

    Couples 3 points 30 points 11 0.99% 9.90% 10 1.10% 10.99% 9 1.23% 12.35% 8 1.41% 14.08% 7 1.64% 16.39% 6 1.96% 19.61% 5 2.44% 24.39% 4 3.23% 32.26% 3 4.76% 47.62% 2 9.09% 90.91%
    In order for the undesirable couple to stay in the competition, the sum of the judges' percentage and their percentage of the audience vote can't be lower than the corresponding sums for all other couples.

    The best case for the undesirable couple is when one of the other couples gets 0% of the audience vote.

    The worst case for the undesirable couple is when the other couples evenly split the remaining audience vote. This places the bar as high as possible for them - any other distribution of the audience vote will give them someone they could more easily beat.

    If I augment the above statistics with this new information, we can see the trends in terms of how much the undesirable couple's supporters have to vote to keep them in the competition:

    Number of Judge's Score Audience Vote Couples 3 points 30 points Best case Worst Case 11 0.99% 9.90% 8.91% 17.19% 10 1.10% 10.99% 9.89% 18.90% 9 1.23% 12.35% 11.11% 20.99% 8 1.41% 14.08% 12.68% 23.59% 7 1.64% 16.39% 14.75% 26.93% 6 1.96% 19.61% 17.65% 31.37% 5 2.44% 24.39% 21.95% 37.56% 4 3.23% 32.26% 29.03% 46.77% 3 4.76% 47.62% 42.86% 61.90% 2 9.09% 90.91% 81.82% 90.91%
    As you can see, it becomes progressively harder for the audience to keep someone in the competition that the judges really don't want.

    Of course, in reality, some of these extremes are unlikely to appear. I can't imagine a couple making it far and getting an infinitessimal audience vote, esp. if the judges like them enough to give them a high score. I also don't expect to see the judges giving anybody 1's. For the sake of argument, here is what the numbers look like for giving the undesirable couple 4's and the rest of the couples 9's:

    Number of Judge's Score Audience Vote Couples Bad Score Good Score Best case Worst Case 11 4.26% 9.57% 5.32% 13.93% 10 4.71% 10.59% 5.88% 15.29% 9 5.26% 11.84% 6.58% 16.96% 8 5.97% 13.43% 7.46% 19.03% 7 6.90% 15.52% 8.62% 21.67% 6 8.16% 18.37% 10.20% 25.17% 5 10.00% 22.50% 12.50% 30.00% 4 12.90% 29.03% 16.13% 37.10% 3 18.18% 40.91% 22.73% 48.48% 2 30.77% 69.23% 38.46% 69.23%
    From the standpoint of ratings, this is a pretty good system: a popular star or couple who brings in lots of viewers can easily stay for a while. The judges' scores don't carry a huge amount of weight at first, so the audience can keep 'saving them' from the horrible decisions of a misguided judging panel. Later in the competition, the judges' actions can keep the better dancers from leaving, hopefully producing a winner who can dance well compared to the rest of the stars.

    - John
  14. johns

    johns New Member

    But then, since the audience numbers are never revealed, the producers could just make up numbers that work out 'right'...

    - John
  15. johns

    johns New Member

    My apologies for the long strings of numbers in my long posting above. They started out as grids of cells in Excel, and looked like nice tables when I created the posting.

    Any suggestions on fixing the text?

    Otherwise, I suspect a few people will mutter unpleasant thoughts about engineers who think they can dance rambling about math in the middle of the night... :)

    - John
  16. DancePoet

    DancePoet Well-Known Member

    Very interesting. :cool: This means my analysis regarding Sara could be wrong if she makes it into the last several rounds because of fan base. And that is a good thing if her dancing continues to be below the others.

  17. DancePoet

    DancePoet Well-Known Member

    This would never happen. :shock: ;) :lol:
  18. DancePoet

    DancePoet Well-Known Member

    Its fine. :cool:
  19. gingerbread

    gingerbread Member

    I was told that Tom DeLay urged Texans to call in for her during one of his speeches (he is still making speeches?). I have no idea if this is true. I also heard that the pros are squabbling. Wish I knew more, wish I were a fly on the wall there.
  20. My Ox Is Broken

    My Ox Is Broken New Member

    You could be on to something, although I hope that some of the less-zealous country fans have started to drift away from Sara now that they've seen that she stinks.

    My hope is that what happened to Jerry Rice last season will happen to Sara. Jerry had a large, football-lovin' fanbase that dominated everybody early on. But as the field narrowed and the best dancers emerged, Jerry's fanbase stayed constant, while the best dancers continued to gain fans. Near the end, when sentiment turned against Stacy, her former fans all went into Drew's camp and tipped the vote in his favor.

    I think there will be some radical shifts in voting in the next two weeks, and Mario and/or Joey will probably be the big beneficiaries.

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