Ballroom and the economy

Is a bad economy reality overall, or just local? This news release seems to paint a different picture.


Carnival Corporation had record revenues, record earnings and a record number of passengers in 2004, vice president and COO Howard Frank said during the Carnival Corporation shareholders’ meeting in Southampton, England, last week.

The company had a 45% increase in revenues year on year to $9.7 billion, with net income rising from $1.2 billion to $1.9 billion.

About half the world’s cruise passengers, 6.3 million, sailed on Carnival Corporation ships, it was reported at the meeting.

Frank told shareholders that the rest of 2005 looks very good, with bookings and pricing both up. “Demand is growing stronger and stronger,” he noted.

According to Carnival Corp. executives, Carnival Cruise Lines and Princess Cruises are by far the company’s two strongest brands in North America. They said Windstar Cruises and Seabourn Cruise Line are doing well, but are “not part of major earnings growth.”

Building the Market

Since 44% of the passengers carried by the company’s cruise brands last year were first-time cruisers, the company feels it is building the market substantially.

Frank said Carnival Corporation has about 48% of the capacity in the North American market, with Royal Caribbean next at 31% and the rest of the industry accounting for 21%.

“We will have 49% of the capacity for North America in 2008, based on what we know today,” he added.

In Europe the company calculates that it holds 40% of current capacity and expects to have 46% in 2008.

Frank noted that eight ships, representing a 17% capacity increase, were delivered during 2004 and another eight have been ordered. He said Carnival tries to stay very disciplined in ship orders and was able to use its scale to keep construction costs to $168,000 per berth, well below usual costs.

The euro-based order for the eight additional newbuilds, at 163,000 euros, is similarly below the norm.

The six ships on order for the North American market represent $2.9 billion in spending.

Focused on Europe

The company is “very focused on the European market,” with eight new ships scheduled to debut in that market in the next few years. The two unassigned ships on order are likely to go to P&O and Costa, although a definite decision will come at the end of this year, Frank said.

Following the unprecedented capacity growth of seven new ships in 2003 and eight in 2004, Carnival Corporation expects to grow 8.5% this year, 6.3% in 2006, 7.5% in 2007 and 6.6% in 2008, based on the current order book.

The company is predicting revenue yields of 5%-6%, with net costs “flattish,” except for fuel, which is driving a 3%-4% increase in costs.

“Despite $7 billion-plus spent for cash purchase of ships, we expect to have excess cash,” Frank told shareholders. He said the company was unlikely to use the money to repay debt unless interest rates spike worldwide, and that it might have a share buyback, or pay increased and/or bonus dividends to shareholders.
 
I think there may be some localized effects, kansas49er. But I also think Larinda made some good points. The economy moves relatively slowly in either direction. So it might take quite a while before the effects of a slowed economy impact a particular industry. And it might take a while before things pick again, up as well. Increased hiring doesn't necessarily translate into increased consumer confidence. *shrug*

If the economy magically finishes rebounding tomorrow, I suspect it may be a while before ballroom comp organizers, for example, decide it's worth it to stage a comp and risk losing cash. They might wait a bit ...
 
Oh Lordy. I don't want to go off on a tangent, but the localized economy thing just rung a bell. Did anybody besides me hear a story on NPR last fall in which the commentator went back and interviewed several people who had lost jobs in the post 9-11 slump?

Several people had recovered very well -- gotten new jobs or changed industries. But there was one town, somewhere in the midwest, in which the people were doing terribly. The one major manufacturer in town had closed, and there just weren't jobs that people could go to.

Yeah. Local economies can sometimes suffer disproportionately ... :(

Anyway, back on topic. I find what spatten said about a shakedown in the dance industry to be very interesting. I don't know enough to make an intelligent comment about the dance industry, in particular. I have seen something like that in other industries, and I find the observation very interesting.

Has anybody else seen something similar in dance comps? Do you think it will help improve the quality, in the long run?
 
It is at best an unsound idea to qualify the state of the economy based on the purchase of luxury items such as cruises.

For examply the fur industry seems to realize a very similary amount of sales irellevant of the fluctuations of the market and economy. They seem to sell the same amount of coats in a recession as they do in a boom. Perhaps the dance world als operates in a strange fashion.
 
pygmalion said:
I was tentatively planning to go back and visit my old home town for a ballroom comp this spring. But alas. Still, a month before that comp should be happening, there's no sign of it. The conclusion my friends and I have drawn is that the poor US economy killed that comp, at least for this year. I guess I'll go visit later this year for another comp. I sincerely hope the economy's rebounded by then.
nice topic, pygmalion. i like discussing social sciences !

i agree with larinda's comments. general uncertainty about the economy usually makes people start saving money, and cutting down on non-essential expenses. I have been in this situation since Jan 2004, where I've been watching every dime of my money ;)
ironically though, my dancing never suffered. of course, i stopped going to classes, but i became really resourceful - I'd go to clubs early before they'd charge cover, and try get free lessons at the clubs, whenever possible. And I sweet-talked my instructor into letting me attend her beginner classes for free. she liked me, so she agreed ;)

If I was a regular competitor, I would definitely have stopped going to competitions. That being said, there could be many reasons why this particular competition fell through.
 
Yeah. The attendance was low last year, and I suspect the organizers didn't think it'd be worth their while, this year. Oh well. Maybe next year. :?
 
I am not a ballroom dancer, so perhaps I'm not really able to say, but I think it has to do more with demograhics, oversaturation, and moving fads than anything else. I am more into the WCS world. Good comptition venues still attract good crowds. However, there are more and more venues, COmpeting for the same crowds. Only the better ones survive. THe others have lessor competitors, attracting less crowds, and the downward spiral begins. Also, there is a natural rythm to things. As one generation moves on, another will find the way. But serious dancing not only takes serious money, but serious time. That is the shortage these days. People feel fried with their schedule. Elimination of the least painful to lose takes place. Children come into play, or bad health. Or new dance styles, or whatever. THings come and go, it is a natural cycle.
As to the economy, cruises are not for the "luxury class" anymore. They are full of families, and machinists, and teachers, and all the rest. The cruise lines intentionally market to these people. WHy? Because there are so many of them! Less profit margin, but huge profits. I do think it is a sign of the general economy. I do not generally accept the gloom and doom painted by the media. WHy? because so many high priced hobbies are doing more business than ever. Paint ball, game consoles like X BOX and the others, Cell phones, 4wd vehicles that never leave payment, the list goes on and on and on. In addition, I work for an aircraft manufacturer. THe ups and downs follow the generally economy about 6 mos to a year. We have our entire 2005 production sold out, 95% of our 2006 production sold out, and good numbers everywhere. Even in the single engine aircraft , driven by personal buyers and not corporate buyers. THe overall economy is GOOD!
 
I agree. The overall economy is a lot, lot better.

I suspect ballroom is a bit different than WCS because it's more capital-intensive, from a student perspective. So, in an economic downturn, it gets hit harder. At least, that's what I see. Others may disagree. *shrug*
 
Well, for my husband and I, it's more of the "everything is rising except our salaries" mentality. Gas is at a ridiculous price and expected to go higher, which then in turn, raises prices of just about everything else that is shipped or transported. Put it this way, no expense of ours has gone down over time. So, we're working with the same amount of money (actually less, because I've been unemployed since November), but have less disposable income because of the cost of things just keep sgoing up.

So, it will end up meaning less competitions for me for the time being anyway, which is fine. I'm stepping up the level of partner scouting so I can hope to cut my dance expenses as well.
 
pygmalion said:
I agree. The overall economy is a lot, lot better.

I suspect ballroom is a bit different than WCS because it's more capital-intensive, from a student perspective. So, in an economic downturn, it gets hit harder. At least, that's what I see. Others may disagree. *shrug*

From what I have seen on this forum, which s really my only exposure to ballroom, I would have to agree withe the WCS vs ballrom costs . I simply cannot believe the cost of a competition gown. Man, am I glad my wife isn't interested in ballroom. WOW! I still think, though, it is a matter of time and interests vss money. for instance, while it gauls me to no end, I am paying someone to mow my lawn. Not because I am flush with cash, but because I am so poor in time. :cry:
 
kansas49er said:
As to the economy, cruises are not for the "luxury class" anymor

You may very well be right about this - I have never been on a cruise. I do know they don't advertise to singles. The one time I had an extra 8,000$ in my life for a nice Mediterranean Cruise I was told that singles had to pay 2x the cost. But I digress..

mamboqueen said:
everything is rising except our salaries
Yup. The inflaction numbers - core numbers of the consumer price index rose pretty bad last report. It could get worse...
 
There are cruises starting at UNDER $500 per person/double occupancy, so they really are doable for the so called "middle class" now. It's cheaper for us to take a week-long cruise than to go visit my in-laws. :shock:

I think we can cruise for $2500 for all four of us for one week, but JUST THE AIRLINE TIX to Indonesia are +/-$4000 (economy class). If we flew business class, we're looking at well over $10,000. Don't ask about first class.... Last I checked it was in the $30,000 range for 4 people (2 adults, 2 kids) to fly to Jakarta from NYC. It's all a matter of perspective.
 
LOL. A family trip to Indonesia is not exactly a typical American vacation. But yeah, I agree. There are tons of reasonably priced cruises out there -- my sister and her family take one every year, since it works out much cheaper than any other family vacation for the five of them. But yes, there are also ultra-luxurious cruises out there. So everybody's right. I love it when that happens. :wink: :lol:


And back to ballroom dance. Are there any signs of a rebound in the dance industry economy? Or are things still lean in 2005? Anybody?
 
At Supershag we have seen a growth in volume since last year in lessons.We have not done any big comps as a studio this year but we expect to increase our participation at Ohio in 2005(in 2004 we took 49 students to Ohio.)Like all business in the States I believe that the dance industry has to improve its product and look at its cost structure.At our parties numbers are up and the social night that we host at Ryles jazz club is very steady.I can remember reading a study in Europe in the 1990s that said that ballroom dancing usually experienced a surge during a depression as it was a safe thing to do and reminded people of old fashioned values.Of course this was social and not competitive ballroom dancing. Cheers Chris
 
Throughout the 90's, I attended many competitions, danced many student/teacher comps, and there was an obvious slow-down related to the economy. These were all NDCA comps, mostly major ones. So, from what I've seen, the comps are affected by the economy.
 

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