Covid-19 NON DANCE debate

Regarding testing - no it is not available widely yet. Perhaps in some areas. But certainly not country wide.

I watched the full white house press briefing yesterday. Not just the clips. The VP and the health and technical folks with him talked a lot about plans for wider testing. About rolling it out over the course of the next week. And about how even then, tests would need to prioritize on the following people:

medical staff and first responders
people over 65 with a cough and a fever over a certain number (I didn't write down the number, but it was over 99 I think)
Others would not be high priority and would not be tested yet until later when there was more capacity.

And they said they were working on setting up the software to get people into the system and get results to people. And to tell them where to go to get tested (at tents that haven't been set up yet, in parking lots, etc.)

And they said they advised (commercial and other) labs to order all the supplies (pipette tips, etc) to be ready to put large numbers of tests through their systems.

And they said they were going to roll it out in highest affected areas first.

In other words ... it's coming. It might be coming very soon. But it's not actually available widely yet. And it hasn't been.

Straight from the White House press conference. Straight from top officials. Oh yeah, and the first guy that spoke told us how wonderful America is, how great of a job he is doing, how this would just all go through like a wave and then be over, and to relax. But he ducked out before the technical people filled in the details.

If you have lots of testing where you are, great. But shut the heck up in telling us that the rest of us do. We do not.
 
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raindance said:
In other words ... it's coming. It might be coming very soon. But it's not actually available widely yet. And it hasn't been.

Straight from the White House press conference.
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As I said, testing is available about as widely, relative to country size, as it was in South Korea at a comparable stage. Whether that's "widely" is in the eye of the beholder.

The White House briefing only addressed CDC testing, not commercial testing.
raindance said:
CDC - no mass gatherings of more than 50 for the next 8 weeks for all of the US. Anyone interested, see the link above to get it straight from the CDC.
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Immediately followed by recommendations on how to hold such events, and a list of exceptions, yes.

Plus I notice everyone is trusting the CDC when the CDC agrees with them, and not otherwise. If you trusted the CDC fully, you wouldn't be worried about testing.
 
raindance said:
www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

CDC - no mass gatherings of more than 50 for the next 8 weeks for all of the US. Anyone interested, see the link above to get it straight from the CDC.
Click to expand...

Our Sunday tea dance which attracts 100-ish people or so weekly and which has slid under the former 250 person limit has now been cancelled for at least two weeks, probably two months.

For those who are concerned about catching the COVID19 virus during routine trips to the local grocery store, many offer a home delivery service. Example: Giant Foods offers Peapod. I believe that your first delivery is free. After that, the delivery charge is about $15. Many restaurants offer drive thrus and pick up windows to help allay fears about dine ins.
 
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Spent time on the phone with my mom trying to convince her that this is actually a thing, and she is actually in the at risk population, as is my father. He only watches fox news, so i am sure he thinks it's a still a hoax. I think i got through to her, though. Pointing out that Italy's death tool doubled overnight seemed to get through to her.
 
scullystwin42 said:
Spent time on the phone with my mom trying to convince her that this is actually a thing, and she is actually in the at risk population, as is my father. He only watches fox news, so i am sure he thinks it's a still a hoax. I think i got through to her, though. Pointing out that Italy's death tool doubled overnight seemed to get through to her.
Click to expand...

I'm glad you're talking to your parents about this. You might share this with them, from the CDC (so hopefully they would consider this is trustworthy) about precautions for older and other higher risk people:

www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Have them read all the way down. You've mentioned you're in Illinois. If they are too, they are in the "If COVID-19 is spreading in your community" category, since they are seeing increasing numbers of cases daily in Illinois, in multiple counties, including community spread.
 
raindance said:
I'm glad you're talking to your parents about this. You might share this with them, from the CDC (so hopefully they would consider this is trustworthy) about precautions for older and other higher risk people:

www.cdc.gov

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Have them read all the way down. You've mentioned you're in Illinois. If they are too, they are in the "If COVID-19 is spreading in your community" category, since they are seeing increasing numbers of cases daily in Illinois, in multiple counties, including community spread.
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I'll send it, and my mom will listen, but my dad is a bit of a lost cause. he's been completely brainwashed that GOVT BAD, despite having worked his whole life as a firefighter and paramedic for a municipal government and is part of that union. he's an amazing dad and grandfather as long as you never speak about politics with him anymore.
I did see that Illinois's cases were jumping. The local hospital near us had one of the first patients who had it, but no spread in our community YET.
 
scullystwin42 said:
I'll send it, and my mom will listen, but my dad is a bit of a lost cause. he's been completely brainwashed that GOVT BAD, despite having worked his whole life as a firefighter and paramedic for a municipal government and is part of that union. he's an amazing dad and grandfather as long as you never speak about politics with him anymore.
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So get him sensible advice from a "GOVT BAD" source like this:

thefederalist.com

The Sensible Person’s Guide To Staying Safe From Coronavirus

Tens of millions of people around the world are infected with these coronaviruses with relatively mild and self-limiting symptoms.
thefederalist.com thefederalist.com

The advice is all the way at the end, though.

And seriously, parents who take advice from their kids? When did that start happening?
 
When you substitute in generally accepted numbers, flattening the curve will require that any restrictions remain in place for 10 years:


Not sure I agree with his solution of even stricter restrictions that will remain in place even longer, but it's good to see what we're looking at if we put in actual numbers.
 
ProgressNotPerfection said:
But it was COOL! It had different COLORS and ANIMATION! I mean, come on, scientific accuracy pales by comparison.

But seriously, if it helps people understand the general concept of why social distancing works, then it has value.
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Looks like a monte carlo type simulation. Turning it into a visual makes a nice explanation that helps people understand the importance of various factors. (Being numerically correct still requires data to drive a simulation that gives good numbers.)

So for example: a 'real' analysis that lets you predict numbers has to have something that tells you how wide the "gap" is in the quarantine problem. A number for the probability of infection when a collision occurs and so on and do on. If we don't know (or are highly uncertain about) those numbers we can't get good bounds on the quantitative effect of changes. (That doesn't mean we can't estimate.)

But the graphic does help people grasp the importance of things like isolating the sick, reducing how much people move and so on. (Qualitative information is very useful to decision making though.)

Academic background: Fluid mechanics, thermo dynamics. These Montecarlo are used to predict certain types of "transport" problems. (Transport is of "mass", which would be the fluid and "heat" which is in the thermo big.)
 
Warren J. Dew said:
Took my daughter to her favorite restaurant today. We always go in the midafternoon, when they are quiet anyway; they seem quieter than usual, but by the time we left, other people were coming in. In addition to food for ourselves, we bought enough extra for dinner for our family.
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And that evening, the governor ordered closure of all restaurants, except for takeout and delivery. I'm glad we visited; it might be our last chance for a while.
 
Warren J. Dew said:
When you substitute in generally accepted numbers, flattening the curve will require that any restrictions remain in place for 10 years:
Click to expand...
Only if we don't develop a vaccine or serum. Phase I of testing for a vacinne started today
nypost.com

First coronavirus vaccine trial begins as Seattle volunteer receives shot

Scientists kicked off testing the first experimental coronavirus vaccine on human volunteers Monday, administering a shot that was a milestone in the race to protect the world from the mounting pan…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
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