ProgressNotPerfection
Forum Master
Or it could simply mean that less drastic measures were needed elsewhere.
Covid-19 NON DANCE debate
- Thread starter GGinrhinestones
- Start date
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
Unless you actively want a discussion on this, we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
South Korea did not do massive lockdowns. That's the big difference between South Korea's strategy and Italy's and Hubei's strategies; Italy and Hubei did do lockdowns.
snapdancer
Forum Master
A significant component to the South Korean response was the availability of widespread testing with rapid results. Until we have that the situation is going to muddle along as it is since we lack the data to give a more tailored response.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
South Korea is further along their timeline than the US is. They had plenty of available testing because their equivalent of the FDA accelerated approval of the tests a month or so before the US did. By now, the Roche Lab announcement is at least the third commercial lab doing testing in the US.
I'm not convinced that the difference between the number of tests being run is primarily availability at this point, though it was a couple weeks ago. Most of the complaints in the US run along the lines of "I had the symptoms of Covid-19, but they wouldn't test me because I didn't have recent exposure to the disease". The thing is, according to NPR at least, that would be true in South Korea too. To get tested in those famous drive through stations, you have to have a fever plus recent exposure. It's just that South Korea has a lot more people with recent exposure, so they have a lot more people eligible for testing.
Now, my understanding is that South Korea did some amount of random testing too for research purposes. That the US should do. In fact, the research organizations that have tests but don't have clinical approval could make themselves useful by doing that kind of research, instead of trying to "help out" with clinical testing - as long as they're willing to release the raw data immediately rather than polishing it for months for publication.
DanceMentor
Administrator
Fair enough. I don't have enough information to confirm the level of mitigation measures. I actually have been quite curious about social events in South Korea. Do you happen to know if there have been any bands or limitations on social events, especially dancing, in South Korea?
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
I don't know specifically about dancing. South Korea has not had general bans on large gatherings, but they have banned large gatherings in specific cities where there were major outbreaks. Those bans were not limited to social events, but included events up to and including religious gatherings. The equivalent would be perhaps a ban in Seattle when the nursing home outbreak occurred that would last until new cases died down.
The general measures South Korea has taken have been selected for efficacy, rather than by panic and speculation as seems more popular in the US. The most important has been voluntary self isolation of people with symptoms, even if they have not been tested, minimizing trips outside the home and wearing face masks when on those trips. They have shut down schools. There are the standard recommendations to wash hands frequently.
Lots of people are minimizing trips outside the home and wearing face masks outside the home even if they don't have symptoms. It's kind of ironic that it's the Asian countries are emphasizing individual action, but that's what's happening, not just in South Korea but in other Pacific Rim countries with minimal outbreaks as well.
Last edited:
Examples of NOT over reacting: Competition cancellations, temporary school closings, voluntary social distancing, curbing large social gatherings, increased hygiene awareness, etc...
One example of over reacting:
This is the "Italy" attitude my wife found to be most short-sighted. Coronavirus is capable of asymptomatic transmission, and the incubation period is pretty long. If you wait until people are testing positive to take meaningful action, it's far, far too late.
worddancer
Well-Known Member
What about all the mom and pop restaurants? And people with gig jobs. They are going to go bankrupt with 1 month of self-isolation.
Also, people seem to think this is going to take 2-3 weeks. But to properly flatten the curve, isn't this something we would be doing for 2-3 months?
Also, people seem to think this is going to take 2-3 weeks. But to properly flatten the curve, isn't this something we would be doing for 2-3 months?
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
The evidence from South Korea shows otherwise.
Last edited:
That is false.
https://www.sciencealert.com/resear...smit-the-coronavirus-without-showing-symptoms
SK's success has been predicated on aggressive and widespread testing so that efforts can be focused rather than generalized. US can't do that because we don't have anywhere near enough testing kits. Our response will have to be generalized, by necessity.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
South Korea waited "until people are testing positive", as you put it, to approve the test that was later used on a widespread basis. They took the appropriate actions at the appropriate times.
Specifically, South Korea approved a commercial clinical test when their known incidence was one in 2 million population. The use of this test was then ramped up.
The US approved a commercial clinical test when our known incidence was comparable - one in 3 million population. The use of our approved tests is being ramped up.
As I pointed out elsewhere, South Korea generally requires a fever and exposure to the disease before you can be tested. This is similar to the requirements for testing in the US.
Appropriate steps should be taken at appropriate times.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
This is a valid point and may be part of why South Korea recommended self isolation only for people with symptoms. The population did end up replacing a lot of their restaurant going with delivery. Personally, I plan to continue patronizing restaurants unless and until the incidence goes up from where it is now.
Also a good point, and a good reason for putting off more drastic measures until they are called for.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
This is a great threat over on salsa forums. A large number of the users there are in Europe so they are ahead by about two weeks in terms of the coronavirus, and you can follow this thread and see some of the progression.
Thoughts about Covid-19 and the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus
First patients in the Netherlands. What are your thoughts on social dancing with the virus spreading worldwide?
The last page didn't look that different from the first page to me, but I didn't read through the whole thread.
One of the posts did link to a very interesting article on the UK approach:
Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?
The government's top scientists are ploughing a different furrow to that of many other countries.
www.bbc.com
Basically, rather than flattening the curve as much as possible, the UK is trying to put off the epidemic just long enough to have it peak in the summer. Their medical system is less stressed in the summer, so they think they can handle the epidemic then.
They think they can do this by recommending hand washing, covering coughs, and not touching your face. They aren't even closing schools.
It will be interesting to see how that works.