Well, the other two have been around longer, and a lot of them don't make it in on the first go-around. McGwire still denies the steroid use, right? Tough situation...he wasn't actually convicted of anything, so hard to justify keeping him out.
Steroid use was not banned by MLB at the time McGwire was playing, but there was a law passed around 1990 that makes it illegal to knowingly ingest anabolic steroids for non-medical purposes even if one has a prescription. When McGwire testified in front of that Congressional committee, he answered all the questions about steroids evasively. The mitigating factors are: (1) the Congressional committee was mainly a grandstanding exercise, and (2) McGwire's main accuser is Jose Conseco, who is not exactly known as a font of truth and wisdom.
I think part of this is that it is less about McGwire than it is about Barry Bonds. It seems almost certain that Bonds is going to break Hank Aaron's record for lifetime home runs, which is one of the most significant records in baseball. Ordinarily any player who did that would be a lock for election to the Hall. However, there is credible evidence that Bonds continued to use steroids after MLB banned it in 2002, up until the point at which the player's union finally consented to testing of active players (at which point Bonds coincidentally turned up with an injury that kept him inactive, and untested, for most of the year. And oh by the way, he's been a much less effective player since he's been back.) If the writers refuse to elect McGwire, it becomes easier to make a case to exclude Bonds.
I think part of it is that the writers want to wait and see how the whole situation plays out over the next several years with both Bonds and McGwire. Bonds is in some legal trouble, some of which doesn't have to do with steroids (tax matters). If Bonds were to be indicted and convicted of some offense, or if he turned up positive on a steriod test, while nothing else ever emerges on McGwire, then the situation becomes eaiser. McGwire has ten years to stand for election by the writers, as long as he gets at least a 5% vote each year. Rest assured that some writers will vote for him each year to keep hom on the ballot. Unlike Bonds, McGwire has never been anything less than an upstanding citizen and a fine representative of the game. If several years pass and no other evidence appears to back up Conseco's allegations, McGwire will probably be voted in.
