Tango in times of pandemic

Rabbit,
I read wildly different estimates of the fraction of people who have been infected and of the base reproduction rate. Most based on estimate of parameters used in models, which we don't have enough information to estimate with much precision. It might take a long time to reach herd immunity, it might not. I don't think anyone knows.
 
Brummbaer said:
The Heinsberg study showed only 14%. I think you need 60-70% for herd immunity - but check those figures.
Click to expand...
Prof Streeck, who conducted that study, talks about a lower mortality rate (0.34%) than you hear about elsewhere because of wider and more random testing. (If you test only the people who actually die of the disease you'll get a 100% mortality rate!). He says he considers the Swedish experiment brave and also remarks that you are unlikely to pick up the virus off surfaces. He says vulnerable people should be protected.

It raises the question of whether lock downs and other extreme measures with their dire economic effects aren’t going too far.

Bad news for us: after saying many things (including shopping) are actually low risk, he mentions dancing as an excellent way to pass on the virus.
 
Brummbaer said:
The Heinsberg study showed only 14%. I think you need 60-70% for herd immunity - but check those figures.
Click to expand...
I've seen those figures around. Problem is we have no idea how many people have had the virus (especially in the United States, where testing is still spotty and inconsistent). Those being tested are those being admitted to hospitals. There is some drive-through testing but it's far from widespread and has been halted in some areas. Maybe we'll get better data if they can implement the new antibody test on a large scale.
 
The health system in Germany does not seem to be overwhelmed at the moment - we import some patients and export some ventilators.
But public tango events or classes - I think we're still a long way from that. I have not booked anything for this year.
 
I will try not to dance tango this year (60 and asthma). Perhaps I cross over to salsa, but only en-linea and not in close hold.
 
opendoor said:
I will try not to dance tango this year (60 and asthma). Perhaps I cross over to salsa, but only en-linea and not in close hold.
Click to expand...
Best not!

Nothing I have seen supports the idea
of an early return to dancing or even any
activity involving group exercise. It's clear
that much of the explosive growth of
infections emanated from large group
activities of different kinds including dance
but also festivals, carnivals, parties etc

Closed environments are obviously the worst.

It's ironic that this crisis hits hardest those
of us who entertain ourselves actively and
spares those who are passive. For us being
cooped up is the worst while those who binge
on Netflix might not be so affected.

For me self-preservation comes first,
sad but essential otherwise we might not
be around to ever dance again.

Do take care and avoid the deadly beast.
 
Here in Germany today we expect decisions about how to start group activities again. Schools, factories, businesses will probably start under certain conditions. If we don't do that, a lot of people in the industrialized countries will suffer by overeating and lack of exercise, and in the developing countries, many more will suffer hunger caused by no income.
Dancing and vacation trips are probably not a high priority, it will take some time.
 
Intuitively it seems plausible that tango dancing increases the chance of catching a virulent respiratory disease due to close contact, but I would like to see whether there is any data supporting this intuition, and if so, what is the effect size.

Clearly, compared with a complete lock-down, meeting in groups increases the chance of catching the disease, but this is not really going to be the relevant contrast class. The relevant contrast class is going to be "normal social interactions without tango dancing" vs "normal social interactions with tango dancing". I suspect that if a disease is highly virulent, then the likelihood that it gets passed on to people during normal social interactions is already set relatively high (based on how widely it is present in the subpopulation), and the additional increase in this likelihood by adding tango dancing to the mix of other social interactions is relatively small.

Also, I suspect that tango dancers, on average, are more health conscious and conscientious than members of other social groups. Although it happens, it is still less likely that tango dancers come to a milonga when they know they are ill with a virulent respiratory disease, than that members of other social groups come to their meetings when they know they are ill. So, if instead of tango we spend time in other social groups, this might increase the overall chance of catching the disease, despite that ceteris paribus the embrace increases the likelihood of transmission.

I don't know what other tangueros'/tangueras' experiences are, but I don't think me starting to dance tango influenced the frequency of getting the flu (I don't think that before I danced tango I had the flu less frequently than in the past dozen years). Of course, one needs to take anecdotal evidence with a grain of salt, so I'd be happy to read if someone had better data to judge this issue.
 
gyb said:
Although it happens, it is still less likely that tango dancers come to a milonga when they know they are ill with a virulent respiratory disease, than that members of other social groups come to their meetings when they know they are ill.
Click to expand...
True, most tango dancers are very aware of this, however, the problem is that there is solid evidence that the virus can be transmitted by asymptomatic or even presymptomatic individuals. That's the real problem. We may need more widespread testing with the antibody test kits now being produced before we have a good idea about safety and immunity. As for myself, I am already despondent about not dancing.
 
gyb said:
Intuitively it seems plausible that tango dancing increases the chance of catching a virulent respiratory disease due to close contact, but I would like to see whether there is any data supporting this intuition, and if so, what is the effect size.

Clearly, compared with a complete lock-down, meeting in groups increases the chance of catching the disease, but this is not really going to be the relevant contrast class. The relevant contrast class is going to be "normal social interactions without tango dancing" vs "normal social interactions with tango dancing". I suspect that if a disease is highly virulent, then the likelihood that it gets passed on to people during normal social interactions is already set relatively high (based on how widely it is present in the subpopulation), and the additional increase in this likelihood by adding tango dancing to the mix of other social interactions is relatively small.

Also, I suspect that tango dancers, on average, are more health conscious and conscientious than members of other social groups. Although it happens, it is still less likely that tango dancers come to a milonga when they know they are ill with a virulent respiratory disease, than that members of other social groups come to their meetings when they know they are ill. So, if instead of tango we spend time in other social groups, this might increase the overall chance of catching the disease, despite that ceteris paribus the embrace increases the likelihood of transmission.

I don't know what other tangueros'/tangueras' experiences are, but I don't think me starting to dance tango influenced the frequency of getting the flu (I don't think that before I danced tango I had the flu less frequently than in the past dozen years). Of course, one needs to take anecdotal evidence with a grain of salt, so I'd be happy to read if someone had better data to judge this issue.
Click to expand...
Yet another rather naive and uninformed post!
There is much evidence already to refute your suppositions.
Some research of your own might inform you.

One day we might be free to make our individual decisions,
hopefully you will be dancing alone . . . . .

You don't seem to be aware that, apart from the actual
deadly variations in how it debilitates people, it's most
unpredictable behaviour is being contagious before symptoms
become obvious to the sufferer and to everyone else.
How do you feel about dancing with others who aren't
showing symptoms but could be contagious without you,
nor them, knowing?

And then they start coughing . . . . . . .
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Dance Ads

Advertise on Dance Forums Reach dancers, teachers, studios, event organizers, and dance-friendly brands. View ad options
Back
Top