Covid-19 NON DANCE debate

[Warren J. Dew]

That was my impression of your claim. My experience from ASME and other engineering conferences is otherwise.

Then you should have said so, instead of talking only about dance competitions, so as to make clear you were commenting in the context of a comparison, rather than just a discussion of dance competitions.

Then we could have agreed to disagree more quickly, since your experience is miles away from mine. I shake hands a lot at conferences; I rarely shake hands at all at dance competitions.

This was also my impression of what you were saying. I think you are wrong and said so. I gave a reason why I think hugs are more likely to pass along the virus that passes infection.

And I gave my reasons for thinking the opposite. This might again be an "agree to disagree" scenario.

That is what I thought you claimed. This is also not my experience based on ASME conferences. There were often empty chairs between other chairs at the conference. Not always, but often.

In contrast, people sat closely together at tables at the competitions I've been to. People often had to squeeze between tables to get to the seats where they watched other competitors in other heats. Chairs were just as close watching the pro show at comps I've been to as at ASME conferences. Next to each other is next to each other. They don't leave space at comps.

Again, your experience differs from mine; my experience is that the ballroom is usually quite empty for most sessions at most competitions. In addition, there are tables in most dance competition seating arrangements, which is space into which seats can't be squeezed, so there are less overall seats, and less seating density.

But again, it's mostly immaterial, since it's personal experience. It's not a very useful basis from which to argue - as opposed to the Imperial College paper, which was written by people doing it professionally.

 

[Warren J. Dew]

Looks like higher temperature and humidity significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418

That suggests things might get temporarily better in the summer - but with the current strategies, worse again in the fall.

 

[raindance]

Latest update: stepson is on a plane from Lusaka to Dubai as I type this. Then supposedly will fly thru Chicago on the way to our local airport. His girlfriend did not manage to get on the same flight; last we heard, they're flying her to the US by way of Ethiopia.

And I still don't know where anyone will be staying for the next two weeks, including me.

Well, it's good they're at least getting back to the US. I hope all their flights go through. There is a level 4 travel advisory - as I understand it, basically, all US citizens are to get back to the USA ASAP, or prepare to stay in the country they are in for the long haul.

Global Level 4 Health Advisory – Do Not Travel

travel.state.gov

I don't know your full situation, obviously. But if you have a spare bedroom and spare bathroom (preferably close together or en suite), and the international traveler(s) are willing to stay there (and they are people you would want to have sheltering with you for the longer term), I think that could be workable.

Reality is that many in the US are going to get this infection eventually, in my opinion. That doesn't mean that I agree with your husband, that you should just go ahead and get it over with. But I don't think you are taking an unreasonable risk sheltering them in a separate area in your house.

Doing everything we can to flatten that curve is important. But those two young people are going to need to shelter somewhere. If they stayed elsewhere (hotel, apartment, other), who is going to bring them food? Wouldn't they expose more people if they have to go look for lodging, keep themselves fed, etc?

If there isn't somewhere else handy and safe for you or them (you don't have a summer home, or a friend with an empty cottage, do you?), sheltering them carefully through self quarantine in your home on their return, and then integrating them into your household afterwards if every is still healthy at that point sounds reasonable to me.

I hope you and your husband can come to a reasonable agreement. I hope you'll update us. (Or send me a PM if you don't want to discuss it publicly, I'm interested in how it will turn out for all of you.)

 

[raindance]

The FDA approved Quinine as a treatment for Covid-19 today.

Where did you see that? I see different drugs discussed, not approved yet for Covid-19, but approved for other diseases. They can be used in clinical trials and for compassionate use (per press conferences) with Covid-19 patients.

 

[lucia_l]

Arghhh

Updated: Trump Says FDA Approved Anti-Malaria Drug Chloroquine To Test As Coronavirus Treatment

“We’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately,” Trump said.

www.forbes.com

I thought I'd read an approval for the actual use somewhere. I should have paused... It looks like it's only approved *to test*... Ok.. even if it works, it could be months.

 

[lucia_l]

Warren,

But again, it's mostly immaterial, since it's personal experience. It's not a very useful basis from which to argue

Perhaps they are irrelevant. But you brought up these personal experiences to support whatever it is you are claiming about dance events and Covid-19.

 

[raindance]

Arghhh

Updated: Trump Says FDA Approved Anti-Malaria Drug Chloroquine To Test As Coronavirus Treatment

“We’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately,” Trump said.

www.forbes.com

I thought I'd read an approval for the actual use somewhere. I should have paused... It looks like it's only approved *to test*... Ok.. even if it works, it could be months.

Yep. And chloroquine and quinine both treat malaria, but they aren't the same drug.

Well, the compassionate use can be pretty much immediate (I think, some paperwork involved for individual patients though AFAIK) for severely affected patients. Problem is, they don't know the appropriate dose and all that for Covid-19 yet.

 

[ralf]

Well, Pennsylvania is shutting down in about 25 minutes.... The governor has ordered all "non-life-sustaining" businesses to close by 8pm, with enforcement starting at midnight. "nls" includes hotels.... (so what about their guests who are already there?) Liquor stores are allowed to stay open .

 

[Warren J. Dew]

Liquor stores are life sustaining? I guess we now know something about this governor's outlook!

 

[lucia_l]

ralf,
While at my dance lesson, heard Oak Park, Il shut down. I did an extra last minute grocery run to have fresh items. Of course I already have enough toilet paper.

I'm keeping ears open. Cantaloupe won't last through a 14 day shut down, but at least I can have some the first week!

 

[raindance]

ralf,
While at my dance lesson, heard Oak Park, Il shut down. I did an extra last minute grocery run to have fresh items. Of course I already have enough toilet paper.

I'm keeping ears open. Cantaloupe won't last through a 14 day shut down, but at least I can have some the first week!

Even during shut downs, generally people can still go to the grocery store as needed. (Of course, if you don't need to go, it's better to stay home.)

Of course, check your local guidelines, wherever you are, if you are in an area with an official shut down. But nationwide, we're being asked to stay home as much as possible these days.

 

[lucia_l]

Yes. But when shutdowns are announced it triggers even more grocery store runs (like mine!) I was out anyway, and I had run out of paper towels!! (I got a roll.)

 

[ralf]

chloroquine and quinine both treat malaria,

And quinine is readily available in grocery stores -- it's what gives tonic water its bitter taste.
BTW, gin and tonic originally really was "for medicinal purposes"! The tonic water (which originally had more quinine than the current commercial version) was a preventative against malaria, put people mixed it with gin to make it more palatable.

 

[David_In_CA]

It's also to be noted that that PNAS paper is old - 2008 - and explicitly talks about lack of accuracy regarding social distancing, saying, "Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission."

The more recent Imperial College paper specifically addresses Covid-19 and says banning large gatherings makes little difference. Sounds like there has been an advance in the science since 2008 showing that mass gathering bans are not the way to go about social distancing.

I was going to point out that many of the known Covid-19 outbreaks have been a direct result of mass gatherings -- Biogen, South Korean church, New Rochelle, etc, but actually with the way that they've been doing testing, we can't really even know if those large scale infection sources are real.

I'd like to know how they model mass gatherings. Conferences and such also have the effect of bringing lots of people in from around the country and world, and then dispersing them again. Travelers have limited options for social distancing, since they typically don't have kitchens or significant refrigerators.

 

[Warren J. Dew]

I'd like to know how they model mass gatherings. Conferences and such also have the effect of bringing lots of people in from around the country and world, and then dispersing them again.

I'm pretty sure the model is a diffusion model. Given it's limited to the UK, I don't think it can model international travel.

It's not clear to me whether it's preferable for international travel to cause rapid outbreaks through mass gatherings, or through more gradual diffusion from individual travelers. Certainly the Biogen outbreak caused relatively many cases in short order, but that also meant it was identified quickly; I think that might ultimately be easier to handle than the Washington state situation, which was only identified weeks after the US index case came to the US and may have caused cases that are still unidentified.

I do think it's fairly clear that preventing as many cases as possible from being imported in the first place is best from a disease control standpoint. That might make it possible, for example, for the US to wipe out Covid-19 domestically by the end of the summer. The tradeoff is that international travel continues to be banned. We end up with a boring 1930s world, instead of the excitement of the 80s, 90s, and 1920s.