Joe
Forum Master
Yes, like I said: one way, or another!
Covid-19 NON DANCE debate
- Thread starter GGinrhinestones
- Start date
ProgressNotPerfection
Forum Master
The flights for today, which would have got them here by tmr night, were just cancelled. Stepson & his gf walked 45 kilometers (28 freaking miles) yesterday from their village to Lusaka, the capital, & now are stuck there until whenever the Peace Corps can find them new flights.
The world is off its axis these days. [spoken in Rod Serling’s voice...cue “Twilight Zone” piano riff]
Joe
Forum Master
No juxtaposition. First quote I did a lousy job editing and ended up with a bad tag. Second quote for some reason hid the picture I'd inserted.
Joe
Forum Master
Installing the bathrooms doors the correct way makes those devices unnecessary. A bathroom door should be installed to open outward from the bathroom, with the handle on the outside.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
Why would energetic activity make a difference?
As for contact, there aren't actually more "people touching each other" at a ballroom dance competition compared to other events. You touch your partner and if you are in the final of a championship event, you shake hands with five other people. You even look away from your partner in Standard, so if you cough it goes out into empty space, not into someone's face. The seating is not terribly compact.
Compare that to the Biogen conference which managed to infect close to 100 people. How did that happen? Thinking about it, there were probably sessions with chairs packed right next to each other. Then at the end of the session, however many people were in the room probably shook hands with 30 other people. And, they did this all day, not just for a few 2 minute competitions. Maybe that was way more contact than the dance competition held there a few days earlier.
Certainly the greatest concern seems to be with sporting events where audiences are seated in closely spaced seats. That doesn't include most dance competitions.
raindance
Forum Master
Assuming hotels will be open for the next two weeks, plus food options during a stay for you is a stretch, and will expose you to more people, and give you less control of your environment. Your going to have to work something out with your husband, I'm afraid. When your visitors make it home, and they agree with you, it will be three against one.
Warren,
At the recent comp I went to those waiting to compete sat at tables. If someone had coughed, the droplets in the cough would drop to the table and stick. So the tabletops would be infected. People circulated from table to table. So someone who sat at the table would get exposed. (In this process the table is a "fomite" and the contact is through "fomites". )
Unlike at restaurants where staff can wipe tables after each meal, there is no opportunity for staff to come around and clean all the tables regularly. Instead, at a competition, tables are not wiped for pretty much a full day. This is normally fine because we don't have crumbs, plates or cutlery from a meal. But it means they will accumulate virus which is a problem during this pandemic period.
At the comp I went to some people hugged-- which is even more contact than hand shaking. But I also shook hands with people. At a comp in November, I shook hands with Tony Dovalani and another judge while at the counter for Starbucks. My pro introduced us. I'm sure I am not the only person who shook Tony's hand. I bet some people hugged him. (With that smile of his, who wouldn't want to? Plus I've noticed dance-people tend to be more huggy types than most engineers. So there is a lot more hugging than at an ASME conference.)
At two comps where I watched the pro-competition, there was open dancing for about 1/2 hour. Some people danced with people other than their pro.
Watching the pro-competitions I also sat quite close to lots of other audience members. Chairs were side by side in rows at Harvest Moon and at North Imperial. I changed chairs from time to time. Most of the time I sat with people from my studio. For a while I sat next to Don Johnson and Irene Shukat, to chat. If I'd carried the virus, that means I could infect them.
They live in a different county from me gotten sick and taking it to a different county. (Admittedly, I could do that myself by merely driving to visit my mom.) To get a better view, I also move to a back row on risers-- so once again near different people (who may have been from a different state for all I know.)
Don and Irene, who own a studio are are pretty active in the dance scene, know lots of people, so needless to say, lots of people came by, sat by them and chatted briefly. There were some hugs.
I realize some of the factors you see at scientific conferences aren't present or are only present to a lesser extent. But I think you are under-estimating the amount of direct contact. You are also forgetting about fomite transport of virus through contact with table tops and such.
I think you are forgetting the hugging. There is always hugging at large semi-social gatherings. Dance competitions (and sports events) have a social aspect among the crowd. There is hugging.
At the recent comp I went to those waiting to compete sat at tables. If someone had coughed, the droplets in the cough would drop to the table and stick. So the tabletops would be infected. People circulated from table to table. So someone who sat at the table would get exposed. (In this process the table is a "fomite" and the contact is through "fomites". )
Unlike at restaurants where staff can wipe tables after each meal, there is no opportunity for staff to come around and clean all the tables regularly. Instead, at a competition, tables are not wiped for pretty much a full day. This is normally fine because we don't have crumbs, plates or cutlery from a meal. But it means they will accumulate virus which is a problem during this pandemic period.
At the comp I went to some people hugged-- which is even more contact than hand shaking. But I also shook hands with people. At a comp in November, I shook hands with Tony Dovalani and another judge while at the counter for Starbucks. My pro introduced us. I'm sure I am not the only person who shook Tony's hand. I bet some people hugged him. (With that smile of his, who wouldn't want to? Plus I've noticed dance-people tend to be more huggy types than most engineers. So there is a lot more hugging than at an ASME conference.)
At two comps where I watched the pro-competition, there was open dancing for about 1/2 hour. Some people danced with people other than their pro.
Watching the pro-competitions I also sat quite close to lots of other audience members. Chairs were side by side in rows at Harvest Moon and at North Imperial. I changed chairs from time to time. Most of the time I sat with people from my studio. For a while I sat next to Don Johnson and Irene Shukat, to chat. If I'd carried the virus, that means I could infect them.
They live in a different county from me gotten sick and taking it to a different county. (Admittedly, I could do that myself by merely driving to visit my mom.) To get a better view, I also move to a back row on risers-- so once again near different people (who may have been from a different state for all I know.)
Don and Irene, who own a studio are are pretty active in the dance scene, know lots of people, so needless to say, lots of people came by, sat by them and chatted briefly. There were some hugs.
I realize some of the factors you see at scientific conferences aren't present or are only present to a lesser extent. But I think you are under-estimating the amount of direct contact. You are also forgetting about fomite transport of virus through contact with table tops and such.
I think you are forgetting the hugging. There is always hugging at large semi-social gatherings. Dance competitions (and sports events) have a social aspect among the crowd. There is hugging.
We have a family member who is an ICU doctor. Getting real. Hospitals are inundated, staff, supplies and equipment are overloaded. We have decided to hunker in our house and send one person out for supplies wearing a mask. Person has to wash well after coming home. The ICU doctor is now isolating himself from family when he gets home. Sleeps separately and has his own designated bathroom. Eats well away from us. No more hugs and kisses for what we think may be 3 months. No one else is allowed in the house except other family members who live alone. I think next step is to put mail and other incoming objects in a plastic bag for 3 days before opening. Only hope to control this is with NO contact.1/2 measures are not going to work. Vitamin C is not going to help. Not being a smoker or overweight will help, too much load on the lungs. God help the young vapers still going out to socialize and the medical staff who will treat them. I am taking Zoom and other on-line dance classes and trying to work out with pro how to do virtual privates. Trying to pre-pay for classes, lessons etc. so my dance people can afford to eat. Putting on happy music. If we have people over, it will be in the yard, sitting 8 feet apart, BYOB. With any luck, when this blows over, we will be only bored, lonely, out of shape and broke.
This virus can live on some surfaces for up to 3 days and is more contagious than SARS. Asymptomatic people can shed the virus. Touching elevator buttons, door knobs, faucets, water coolers, car door handles, etc. and being within 6 feet of anyone puts you at risk. You only need to touch your face afterwards and you can be infected.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
lucia_l, none of what you say argues that there's more potential for transmission at a dance competition than at a leadership conference. Nobody is arguing that there's no potential for transmission at either one. However, the fact that you can remember who you shook hands with at the dance competition kind of proves that you were doing a lot less hand shaking than at a leadership conference.
I think hugs are less likely to cause infection than a handshake. In a handshake, the virus would only have to survive three transfers: eye/nose/mouth to hand, hand to hand, and hand to eye/nose/mouth. In a hug, there would be an extra step since you are typically touching clothing rather than skin.
I think hugs are less likely to cause infection than a handshake. In a handshake, the virus would only have to survive three transfers: eye/nose/mouth to hand, hand to hand, and hand to eye/nose/mouth. In a hug, there would be an extra step since you are typically touching clothing rather than skin.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
Yes. And none of this happens more often at dance competitions than other events. All of it happens every day at work, at school, and at home, but only occasionally at events, which is likely why the simulations said that work, school, and home were much more important.
snapdancer
Forum Master
No good news in the report that the UK and US is basing decisions upon, linked again for your convenience. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
We could continue the debate as to whether or not government has over-reacted. I would agree that it has in some cases, such as my state in which the governor has already shut down all school buildings for the rest of the school year.
I think that in the short term, the situation has to be brought under control to keep the health care system from being overloaded as is the situation in Italy. The health care system needs more time to plan, replenish critical supplies, and procure equipment to expand their capability. Once that happens then some of the control measures can be relaxed.
The report lays out that this is not just-a-few-week thing and then it's over. It will be with us until an effective vaccine is rolled out. Figure 4 on page 12 of the report describes relaxing and reimposing restrictions until a vaccine arrives. The problem is that civilization won't handle that indefinitely.
What I look for is a relaxing of restrictions for younger people without complicating conditions while older people and those with complicating conditions remain separated. Looking at Table 1 on page 5 of the report, if those under the age of 50 stop separating while those who are older remain separated, then about 1 person in 1000 infected will require critical care. If all ages stop separating, then many more people would require critical care.
As more of the younger people are infected and recover, they will become immune and lower the transmission rate. As this happens, the periods where conditions are relaxed can become longer or some older people can risk becoming infected.
If an antibody test can be developed that can be widely applied, then more immune people can be identified who won't have to separate. More availability of CoViD-19 tests could identify the few people who are asymptomatically contagious. So I recommend that you look at your personal situation and plan how you would handle that particularly if you live in a multi-generational household.
We could continue the debate as to whether or not government has over-reacted. I would agree that it has in some cases, such as my state in which the governor has already shut down all school buildings for the rest of the school year.
I think that in the short term, the situation has to be brought under control to keep the health care system from being overloaded as is the situation in Italy. The health care system needs more time to plan, replenish critical supplies, and procure equipment to expand their capability. Once that happens then some of the control measures can be relaxed.
The report lays out that this is not just-a-few-week thing and then it's over. It will be with us until an effective vaccine is rolled out. Figure 4 on page 12 of the report describes relaxing and reimposing restrictions until a vaccine arrives. The problem is that civilization won't handle that indefinitely.
What I look for is a relaxing of restrictions for younger people without complicating conditions while older people and those with complicating conditions remain separated. Looking at Table 1 on page 5 of the report, if those under the age of 50 stop separating while those who are older remain separated, then about 1 person in 1000 infected will require critical care. If all ages stop separating, then many more people would require critical care.
As more of the younger people are infected and recover, they will become immune and lower the transmission rate. As this happens, the periods where conditions are relaxed can become longer or some older people can risk becoming infected.
If an antibody test can be developed that can be widely applied, then more immune people can be identified who won't have to separate. More availability of CoViD-19 tests could identify the few people who are asymptomatically contagious. So I recommend that you look at your personal situation and plan how you would handle that particularly if you live in a multi-generational household.
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I didn't claim it did. I'm not making any claim one way or the other.
No. But you do seem to be arguing the potential for transmission at dance events is lower than at the leadership conferences. You also seem to be arguing that consequently closing dance events is an over reaction. That's a strong claim. Your argument doesn't support it, in part, because you aren't accurately describing the type of contact at dance competitions.
Know. It means I have a good memory. I know whose hands I shook at ASME conferences also. I also used to surprise people who would meet me a second or third time and say "If I met you, I'd remember. Then I'd tell them their name and where I'd met them." The response was generally... "Oh. Yeah. I was there. I thought I'd remember all the women since there are so few of you." Nope. They didn't.
That sounds like a guess. I've hugged people. Cheeks often touch with hugs. Some people try to sneak a little kiss in.
Also, virus might shed from clothing dropping in other locations; I don't know. Spores definitely shed.
Warren J. Dew
Forum Master
We could debate about which measures are overreactions. I'd argue that school closures are not: every case in the study that doesn't involve overloading the medical system - which I agree should be a priority - involves school closure. If we believe the report, the overreactions are the actions that are either mentioned in the report as being relatively ineffective, such as banning "large" gatherings, or are not even considered, such as shutting down businesses.
I'm also not sure that turning the measures on and off is practical. Can you really get the population to switch between treating the situation as if they have to minimize contact one week, then have them go out as if nothing is the matter the next week, switching behavior on demand? I doubt it.
I think a better method would be eased social distancing. Maybe instead of 75% reduction - which for example could be accomplished by half the people not going to dances - we could target 50% reduction or something. Or even just target 75% reduction instead of the 100% reduction that it seems like many are targeting currently.
The report looked at social distancing of old people only and found that it was inadequate. The issue is that letting younger people mix doesn't just increase the cases among younger people; it also increases the cases among older people, because there will unavoidably be some contact.
That said, when the streets are pretty empty, the social distancing has gone way further than suggested in the paper. To achieve a 75% reduction in contacts only requires that people reduce their own activity by 50%. That way you'll be exposed only 50% as much, and when you are exposed, you'll only be exposed to 50% as many people, for a net of 75% reduction. People are going way overboard on this.
We should also be looking at measures for increasing the capacity of the health care system other than vaccines. For example, the limiting factor appears to be the availability of ventilators, so buying more ventilators would appear to be a reasonable part of the solution.