opendoor
Forum Master
I don‘t think so: antibody tests help to specify the model and projection.
Tango in times of pandemic
- Thread starter rafaelomondini
- Start date
Having accurate antibody tests is important, not so much to identify individuals that are potentially immune, but to get good data on the infection rate in the population. It looks like the only feasible endgame in most countries is herd immunity and we have a limited time to identify the best existing treatments that work and get the best data we can because it's apparent that the lockdowns are unsustainable.
JournalInTime
Forum Master
What I'm saying is that right now, we don't have a good understanding of the antibodies. We don't know whether everybody who is exposed develops them, whether everybody who gets sick develops them, how persistent they are once developed, or how they relate to asymptomatic transmission (do they prevent it, mask it, even enhance it?). All of that stuff is one big cipher at this time.
Whereas right now, knowing who has the virus, symptomatic or not, is useful because that makes it possible to rule out risk. People with no virus can interact without much risk, because spontaneous generation isn't a thing.
Later, antibody tests will matter a great deal. But right now is currently more important than later.
Whereas right now, knowing who has the virus, symptomatic or not, is useful because that makes it possible to rule out risk. People with no virus can interact without much risk, because spontaneous generation isn't a thing.
Later, antibody tests will matter a great deal. But right now is currently more important than later.
itwillhappen
Forum Master
And do you think that public couple dance events will get permitted in that phase (of at least one or two years)?
ArbeeNYC
Forum Master
Was this with the original test or the new antibody test that is about to go into widespread use (here in the States, at least)? Unless I'm mistaken, several companies are rolling out similar tests so there may be more than one. Their reliability remains to be seen. Their virtue is response time.
I expect it will just be a "gathering of X people"
raindance
Forum Master
I agree with you in general.
Re. testing for the virus - spontaneous generation isn't a thing. But false negative tests are a thing. And so are viral loads that may be too low to be detectable, but may be increasing in an individual in coming days (at least in theory). Negative viral test for an individual today doesn't necessarily mean they will still be negative tomorrow, or the day after, etc. Maybe these two scenarios are infrequent enough that they don't make a big difference, I don't know.
No idea of the specific tests. Some English language references are here and here. This may also be interesting for you in the US. From my scans of the German press, there are multiple research organisations looking for a suitable test, e.g. this. Everywhere seems to be preparing some [new] test for verification, or validation. Clearly there's no magic formula for this test type, and no one yet seems to have the 'better mousetrap' that has everyone racing to manufacture and dispense (e.g. Amazon and the pharmacy chain Boots are teaming up to get something out and make some money). I think the 'CE' marking on this is misleading (look up what it means on Wikipedia). AFAIK it's just 'does no harm' on health aspects and meets manufacturing standards. I don't think it has to be effective.
An effective, reliable, differentiating and specific is required to be a game change. False positives just mean that there would be an further upward trend in infections a little later if people believe, incorrectly, that they are immune. The articles highlight the perceived dangers.
Another option being considered with antibody tests is the ELISA test, but lab-based by Public Health England (PHE). This would look at essentially look at herd immunity in a community, so that the lockdown there could be relaxed.
New Zealand's 'elimination' strategy is another option, but probably only workable in small communities.
So, IMHO, there's hope - but just not yet.
itwillhappen
Forum Master
We will see.
For events requiring registration, we already had a catalog for individual risk assessment before the general ban. And I would expect that to be extended to all commercial spaces and activities, including dance schools.
TTanguero
Forum Master
Indeed: every single person who got infected was infection-free the day before.
It's an aerially transmitted virus, so I do not think dancing is actually any more risky than any other event where people are circulating in a crowded space.
Events that require pre-payment are inherently higher risk though, because as we have seen, people tend to think along the lines of "I paid for this, therefore I am going even though I have suspicious symptoms".
Therefore I think a likely intermediate stage that will effectively reduce transmission is actual enforcement that people with a persistent cough or fever must self-quarantine. This won't stop asymptomatic spreaders, but if there is a large proportion of those then we're probably a lot further down the curve than we think.
itwillhappen
Forum Master
The authorities in Germany are well aware of the problem of dance halls:
www.morgenpost.de
Do you think an official will bother to take a closer look at tango schools? And what conclusion will he come to? Based on questions like "which distance between dancers", "frequency of partner changing" ...
We should be grateful to the skiers for taking on the role of party scapegoats.
Senat schließt private Clubs, Konzertsäle und Tanzlokale
Clubs gelten laut Experten als Orte, wo sich das Coronavirus besonders schnell verbreiten kann. Nun sollen sie geschlossen werden.
www.morgenpost.de
We should be grateful to the skiers for taking on the role of party scapegoats.
No, I expect all dancing to be covered under the general category of nightclubs.
You need to remember that encuentro in Ferrara as well.
I'd read about the German police cracking down on 'hidden' dance club meetings in Berlin.
In the UK the police arrested someone allegedly taking food to his vulnerable parents. Not well handled for policing by consent. We've also had them attempting to stop people being in their front garden (incorrectly). It could well have been worse elsewhere with a gun culture, but it's not good when some of these people get a bit more power with no control. I don't think a group of X people, not in a family and co-resident, is going to go down well for the foreseeable future.
Reuven Thetanguero
Well-Known Member
I want to bring up another point: since Tango is a contact sport and 6 feet apart would not do it, real dancing and teaching are out for a while. Yet many of the teachers in our communities still have to eat and pay for their everyday living expenses. I know it's hard for everyone, but if you ever considered taking privates, and are in the position of being able - prepay for those classes now and take them later, when life is back to normal. That will help those teachers who are part of our Tango communities and who are hurting now.