Tango in times of pandemic
- Thread starter rafaelomondini
- Start date
Ttanguero,
I agree that's what will happen.
I also think it's important that individual dancers not deceive themselves dreaming up reasons why they think social dance is not more dangerous than other activities. Once things open up, I think it will be much wiser to understand the danger and then decide for yourself if that danger to yourself and potentially others is worth risking it given the prevailing circumstances.
Many factors will make social dances and large competitions more dangerous than other activities like shopping, working in a small office (e.g. dentist, tax accountant) and even taking private one-on-one lessons.
I agree that's what will happen.
I also think it's important that individual dancers not deceive themselves dreaming up reasons why they think social dance is not more dangerous than other activities. Once things open up, I think it will be much wiser to understand the danger and then decide for yourself if that danger to yourself and potentially others is worth risking it given the prevailing circumstances.
Many factors will make social dances and large competitions more dangerous than other activities like shopping, working in a small office (e.g. dentist, tax accountant) and even taking private one-on-one lessons.
TTanguero
Forum Master
Though if you read the latest news on safe distances behind joggers, for example, I think the reality is that we'll all be exposed on a daily basis. The only sane way out of this – for any activity – is antibody testing, so that people know when they are not a risk to themselves or others.
itwillhappen
Forum Master
I don't expect life in general to be safe.
Never has been, never will be.
BTW if anyone thinks our strategy isn't still herd immunity, I have a bridge to sell you and also the authentic secrets of traditional Argentine tango passed down from maestro to student since the 1930s.
Rabbit,
Long term, the only two available strategies are herd immunity and wiping a virus out. The first is now usually achieved with vaccines. This works to some extent. Owing to the anti-vax groups, we still get outbreaks of measles.
The second was ultimately achieved with smallpox. Wiping it out involved first using vaccines. I was vaccinated.
We almost certainly aren't going to wipe this virus out of the planet with stay at home or track and trace; it's too widespread. Also, there may be populations of bats and civets that harbor it. (Not to mention house cats seem to be able to get it.)
Until we have a vaccine or until (1-1/Ro) are effectively immune because they were infected and recovered, we will be in danger of outbreaks. Ro, the base reproductive value in our society looks to be somewhere on the order of 2 to 5. I've seen higher estimates; it's not really known. Using the bounds of 2-5, without a vaccine, it looks like we'd need between 50% and 80% of the population to have been infected and no longer contagious. When a vaccine is available, we'll need about that many people vaccinated.
But yes, the strategy is herd immunity by infection or vaccine, which ever occurs first.
Until we get to herd immunity, some activities will have a potential for triggering outbreaks. Social dance parties will be one of those activities.
Long term, the only two available strategies are herd immunity and wiping a virus out. The first is now usually achieved with vaccines. This works to some extent. Owing to the anti-vax groups, we still get outbreaks of measles.
The second was ultimately achieved with smallpox. Wiping it out involved first using vaccines. I was vaccinated.
We almost certainly aren't going to wipe this virus out of the planet with stay at home or track and trace; it's too widespread. Also, there may be populations of bats and civets that harbor it. (Not to mention house cats seem to be able to get it.)
Until we have a vaccine or until (1-1/Ro) are effectively immune because they were infected and recovered, we will be in danger of outbreaks. Ro, the base reproductive value in our society looks to be somewhere on the order of 2 to 5. I've seen higher estimates; it's not really known. Using the bounds of 2-5, without a vaccine, it looks like we'd need between 50% and 80% of the population to have been infected and no longer contagious. When a vaccine is available, we'll need about that many people vaccinated.
But yes, the strategy is herd immunity by infection or vaccine, which ever occurs first.
Until we get to herd immunity, some activities will have a potential for triggering outbreaks. Social dance parties will be one of those activities.
There are various levels of safety. A crowded room of possible Sars-CoV-2 carriers without PPE isn't a wise choice unless your motivation is to help. I don't think dance really qualifies. It could be life limiting for you and unnecessary work for many others.
In the absence of vaccine, easy effective treatment, proven long-term immunity, established herd immunity, etc., it's going to be some time before any social gathering is considered sufficiently safe.
There's the associated aspect that others know you're 'safe'. Now would I really trust some of the more desperate dancers?
Given some validated and verifiable certificate (not just borrowed the phone), maybe. A whole new cabeceo codigo.
Isn't that what everyone will say?
TTanguero
Forum Master
I don't think it would an enormous surprise to find that most tanguer@s will be truthful with their partners, and most people have confidence in this fact.
itwillhappen
Forum Master
For me it looks like the restart of milongas will take place in a small, private setting. And that it will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
My conclusion from reading some of the latest research is that we'll reach herd immunity by infection in Western Europe / USA sooner than most people think, certainly before a vaccine is available.
The Heinsberg study showed only 14%. I think you need 60-70% for herd immunity - but check those figures.