Tango in times of pandemic

you are lucky to live in germany , itwillhappen
seems you have a very good healthcare system, with lower mortality rates
We will see. There are no guarantees, I would like to recommend a cold shower in the morning to not forget that. Juggling statistical probabilities doesn't make one happy, anyway.

What makes me happy regarding Tango these days is an SO who can dance and a living room without TV, without furniture, only a tiny DJ table:

IMG_20200331_142906_resized_20200401_090752297.jpg
 
I read they are close to developing a simple, fast test based on antibody development, one that can be used at home. It's not out yet but is apparently being developed and should ship shortly.
The UK government originally said next week, later dismissed as optimistic, but the experts do seem to be saying a few weeks if it passes testing. Let's hope.

Two doctor friends suspect that the lockdown will last for three months, then be relaxed, but may require another three months over winter. Antibody testing would release many from lockdown before that.
 
If it were the same antibodies, then they would protect against it. Similar wouldn't, of course.
It was about the discrimination of the test kit (the verification and validation). My original note was misleading you. The issue was that an unproven test kit, potentially derived from some other test, could give false information. I think that may have been from the Helmholtz Institut report in Spiegel, but there are so many hopefuls vying to be available.
 
I think the pendulum has swung from excessive optimism to excessive pessimism generally. Every time we increase our health systems' surge capacity, figure out more effective drug regimens, or increase testing capacity, for example, the effects are multiplicative with each other. Warmer weather also decreases the transmission of the virus and we know that coronaviruses in general mutate towards more infectious / less virulent forms. We don't even know by what factor the official infection rate is underestimated and therefore fatality rate overestimated, the spread on that is still two orders of magnitude (!) until serological testing comes online, and are forced to act based on the conservative side.

The current guesses at 3-6 month lockdown are based on the current parameters we use to model the outbreak, but these parameters are going to change, by a lot. It's still better to give people bad news now and tell them good news later than the other way around though
 
Commiserations - US topped the Johns Hopkins leader board
Yes, and NY state topped the US. Not a good feeling. The healthcare system in the state is close to the breaking point. The City government is setting up temporary hospital facilities in Central Park and the Tennis Courts in Queens (the Billie Jean King place where the open is held)! A navy hospital ship just docked on the river. Doctors and nurses are begging for supplies. I think we're at or close to the maximum pressure point now. Market is collapsing again. If someone has good news, please share it.
 
We will see. There are no guarantees, I would like to recommend a cold shower in the morning to not forget that. Juggling statistical probabilities doesn't make one happy, anyway.

What makes me happy regarding Tango these days is an SO who can dance and a living room without TV, without furniture, only a tiny DJ table:

View attachment 4172
Your living room is bigger than some of our local milongas.
 
Yeah, that's rather large!



How are you, personally, doing in NYC, ArbeeNYC?
Thank you for asking. I'm fine. I take care of my health, eat well, exercise, etc. I'm having a hard time with the "shelter-in-place" stuff though, because I'm someone who needs to be out for at least a couple of hours a day and we're supposed to stay home. Things are fairly quiet here in the building now, several of the tenants left, and the streets are relatively quiet, not many vehicles. I appreciate the quiet. Almost all the stores are closed and the local economy has been decimated. I miss our local milongas a great deal though and all my friends. That's a very difficult adjustment. And we have to stay away from people outside, which is very very hard from a human perspective (even though there are many people I'd gladly avoid). So there's little or no socializing, no friends, no dinners, no nothing. I try practicing at home but I have a small place and I really prefer practicing with a partner (which should come as no surprise to anyone reading this). I listen to a lot of tango music though and I'm reading a pretty good book on the subject. I did manage to order a substantial supply of wine and extra gin from my favorite liquor store, which is delivery only now. So that's a plus. How's by you?
 

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